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Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s

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Science Bulletin 2016年第5期61卷 416-424页

作者： Yali zhu Tao Wang Huijun Wang nansen-zhu international research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Global warming accelerated after the late1970 s and slowed down after the late 1990 s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional *** hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide (RFCO_2) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO_2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970 s and 1990 s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO_2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO_2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990 s *** PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions(negativepositive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2(53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO(33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO_2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2(PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 %(37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO_2 effects for the late 1990 s shift.

关键词： Anthropogenic forcing Natural decadal variability Global warming Surface temperature Geopotential height

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Influence of Internal Decadal Variability on the Summer Rainfall in Eastern china as Simulated by CCSM4

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2016年第6期33卷 706-714页

作者： Yali zhu Tao WANG Jiehua MA nansen-zhu international research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） on the summer rainfall in eastern china was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO （＋PDO- AMO）, as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO （-PDO ＋ AMO）. For the ＋PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley （YR）, when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the -PDO ＋ AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern china can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern china in the late 1970s and late 1990s.

关键词： Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation eastern china summer rainfall CCSM4

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2017 was the Warmest Year on Record for the Global Ocean

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2018年第3期35卷 261-263页

作者： Lijing CHENG Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean according to an updated institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences （IAR CAS： http：//english. ***/） ocean analysis.

关键词： was the Warmest Year on Record for the Global Ocean IAP XBT

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The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第3期9卷 198-203页

作者： zhu Yali WANG Tao nansen-zhu international research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences

The correlation between the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and ENSO reflects the strength of the interaction between climate systems in the low and high latitudes. Based on the long-term （501 years） control simulation of CCSM4, the authors investigated the linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter. Based on the correlation coefficients between them, the authors divided the entire period into two groups： one that included the years with statistically significant correlations （G1）, and the other the years with insignificant correlations （G2）. in G1, the AO-related atmospheric circulation pattern resembles the ENSO-related one. The Aleutian Low （AL） acts as a bridge linking these two modes, in G2, however, the AO and ENSO signals are confined to the mid-high and mid-low latitudes, respectively. There is no significant linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter, showing a low correlation coefficient. Further analysis suggests that changes in the climatological features, including the strengthened AO, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase, and the weakened AL, may be responsible for the enhanced relationships.

关键词： Arctic Oscillation ENSO CCSM4 Aleutian Low climate interaction betweenlow and high latitude

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Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East china During the Past 100 Years and Related atmospheric Circulation

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 290-294页

作者： zhu Ya-Li nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences

The winter temperature changes in East china during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2(20th-v2)*** typical warm(P1,1911–30;P4,1991–2010)and cold(P2,1938–57;P3,1961–80)periods are identified for the East china winter temperature *** of160-station observational data,NCAR sea level pressure(SLP)data,and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4,which is part of the global warming *** cooling from P1 to P2is a regional phenomenon under global ***,both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation(AO),while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)from negative to *** sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East china require further research.

关键词： East china winter temperature global warming decadal change

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Seasonal Prediction of Extreme High-Temperature Days in Southwestern china Based on the Physical Precursors

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1212-1224页

作者： Zhiyi ZHOU Juan LI Haishan CHEN Zhiwei zhu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100086China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern china,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved *** on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over china,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern china(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is *** simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over *** tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for *** are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central *** these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is *** study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern china.

关键词： extreme high-temperature days southwestern china seasonal prediction predictability

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Observed Frequent Occurrences of Marine Heatwaves in Most Ocean Regions during the Last Two Decades

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1579-1587页

作者： Xiaojuan ZHANG Fei ZHENG Jiang zhu Xingrong CHEN international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Beijing 100081China

Marine heatwaves(MHWs)are prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean that can be devastating to marine life and seriously impact climate systems and *** paper describes the accessibility,content,characteristics,and potential applications of an MHW dataset to facilitate its use in scientific *** intensities of global MHWs from 1982 to 2020 were analyzed using gridded SST data sourced from the National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration(NOAA)Optimum Interpolation(OI)SST V2 high-resolution(0.25°)*** analysis shows a linear increase in the frequency of MHWs in most ocean regions of the world as well as significant interdecadal *** data product can be used as a basic dataset to study the seasonal to decadal changes in extreme ocean events and explore the effects of global warming on the surface layers of oceans during the last 40 years.

关键词： marine heatwave daily intensity linear trend climate extremes

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Implications from Subseasonal Prediction Skills of the Prolonged Heavy Snow Event over Southern china in Early 2008

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1873-1888页

作者： Keyue ZHANG Juan LI Zhiwei zhu Tim LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China international Pacific research center and Department of atmospheric sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822Hawaii

An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern china from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many *** what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and ***,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,*** success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF ***,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this *** bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day *** one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern *** the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern *** Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern china shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).

关键词： prolonged heavy snow event S2S prediction models subseasonal prediction skill MJO Siberian High

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Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2021年第12期38卷 1994-2009页

作者： Xiao PAN Tim LI Ying SUN Zhiwei zhu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China international Pacific research center and Department of atmospheric sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA National Climate center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)*** observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early *** quick transition had a critical impact on the ***,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend *** sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the *** persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.

关键词： Yangtze River floods anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific CP and EP El Niño Indian Ocean warming La Niña Rossby wave train

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Development of an Establishment Scheme for a DGVM

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2016年第7期33卷 829-840页

作者： Xiang SONG Xiaodong ZENG Jiawen zhu Pu SHAO international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of lnformation Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling estab- lishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics （e.g., global distribution, etc.）, ignoring their roles in the population dynamics （e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.） of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics （such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems） and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types （PFTs） on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

关键词： establishment scheme soil water IAP-DGVM1.0 forest population density fractional coverage

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