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CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical atmospheric CO_(2) in a Coupled Carbon−Climate Simulation

Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 572-580页

作者： Jiawen zhu Juanxiong HE Duoying JI Yangchun LI He ZHANG Minghua ZHANG Xiaodong ZENG Kece FEI Jiangbo JIN international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Marine and atmospheric sciences Stony Brook UniversityNY 11790USA University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

The atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution,which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental *** is extremely important to investigate the interactions among atmospheric CO_(2),the physical climate system,and the carbon cycle of the underlying surface for a better understanding of the Earth *** system models are widely used to investigate these interactions via coupled carbon-climate *** chinese academy of sciences Earth System Model version 2(CAS-ESM2.0)has successfully fixed a two-way coupling of atmospheric CO_(2)with the climate and carbon cycle on land and in the *** CAS-ESM2.0,we conducted a coupled carbon-climate simulation by following the CMIP6 proposal of a historical emissions-driven *** paper examines the modeled CO_(2)by comparison with observed CO_(2)at the sites of Mauna Loa and Barrow,and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)CO_(2)*** results showed that CAS-ESM2.0 agrees very well with observations in reproducing the increasing trend of annual CO_(2)during the period 1850-2014,and in capturing the seasonal cycle of CO_(2)at the two baseline sites,as well as over northern high *** agreements illustrate a good ability of CAS-ESM2.0 in simulating carbon-climate interactions,even though uncertainties remain in the processes *** paper reports an important stage of the development of CAS-ESM with the coupling of carbon and climate,which will provide significant scientific support for climate research and china’s goal of carbon neutrality.

关键词： CAS-ESM atmospheric CO_(2) coupled carbon-climate simulation emissions-driven CMIP6 experiment

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu international research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Severe Global Environmental Issues Caused by Canada’s Record-Breaking Wildfires in 2023

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 565-571页

作者： Zhe WANG Zifa WANG Zhiyin ZOU Xueshun CHEN Huangjian WU Wending WANG Hang SU Fang LI Wenru XU Zhihua LIU Jiaojun zhu State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of SciencesShenyang 110016China

Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the *** wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)and 0.14 Pg CO_(2)equivalent of other greenhouse gases(GHG)including CH4 and N_(2)O as of 31 *** wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada’s planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 10 years,which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation *** model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport,causing severe PM_(2.5)pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in northwestern china by up to 2μg *** observed maximum daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in New York City reached 148.3μg m-3,which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years,nearly 10 times that of the air quality guideline(i.e.,15μg m-3)issued by the World Health Organization(WHO).Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires,the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO_(2).The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate,potentially accelerating global *** better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system,more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential.

关键词： Canada forest fire greenhouse gases PM_(2.5) transboundary air pollution

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Trend in seasonal amplitude of northern net ecosystem production:Simulated results from IAP DGVM in CAS-ESM2

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 45-51页

作者： Jiawen zhu Xiaodong Zeng international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina University of chinese academy of sciences BeijingChina

北方陆地净生态系统生产力(NEP)具有明显的季节变化特征,这是大气CO_(2)季节变化的关键驱动.研究这些碳循环过程并理解潜在的驱动因素是气候研究的一个关键问题.本文利用第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2)中的全球植被动态模型(IA... 详细信息

北方陆地净生态系统生产力(NEP)具有明显的季节变化特征,这是大气CO_(2)季节变化的关键驱动.研究这些碳循环过程并理解潜在的驱动因素是气候研究的一个关键问题.本文利用第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2)中的全球植被动态模型(IAPDGVM),研究了1990-2014年北方NEP(40°-90°N)的季节振幅及其变化趋势.在初始化试验的基础上,本文开展了一个控制试验来评估模拟的北方NEP季节幅度的变化趋势,同时开展了三个敏感性试验来研究气候和大气CO_(2)的贡献.结果表明:1990-2014年,模拟的北方NEP季节振幅显著增加,趋势为9.69万吨碳/月/年,这主要是由于最大NEP增加所致.当分别排除CO_(2)施肥效应和气候效应时,上述增加趋势大大减弱.这些显著的减少表明大气CO_(2)和气候变化对北方NEP的季节性振幅有重要影响.尽管模式存在不确定性,但这些结果有利于进一步提升IAPDGVM对陆地碳循环的精确模拟,也为CAS-ESM研究碳-气候相互作用的应用提供了重要参考.

关键词：净生态系统生产力北方陆地生态系统季节变化幅度 CO_(2)施肥效应气候效应

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Response of warm season secondary pollutants to emissions and meteorology in the North china Plain region during 2018-2022

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 58-64页

作者： Yueqi Gao Siyu Wang Zhaolei Zhang Wenxuan Yu Shuai Wang Shengqiang zhu Peng Wang Yan Li Yele Sun Hongliang Zhang Shanghai Key Laboratory of atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention Department of Environmental Science&EngineeringFudan UniversityShanghaiChina Department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change ShanghaiChina IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina institute of Eco-Chongming ShanghaiChina

自2013年起中国空气质量虽改善,但华北平原(NCP)重污染仍存在且二次污染加剧,而人们对其成因和变化了解有限.本研究利用2018-2022年数据,借助CMAQ模型探讨此污染响应.结果显示,在2018-2022年间,PM_(2.5)浓度显著下降31%-37%,O_(3)和NO_... 详细信息

自2013年起中国空气质量虽改善,但华北平原(NCP)重污染仍存在且二次污染加剧,而人们对其成因和变化了解有限.本研究利用2018-2022年数据,借助CMAQ模型探讨此污染响应.结果显示,在2018-2022年间,PM_(2.5)浓度显著下降31%-37%,O_(3)和NO_(2)的年下降速率分别为1%和0.5%SIA和SOA也显著减少,每年分别减少9%和6%PM_(2.5)主要因排放减少而下降,而O_(3)则受气象影响而波动.硫酸盐和铵下降的主因是减排,而硝酸盐对气象变化敏感排放和气象变化对SOA的总体减少同样重要,但人为SOA对排放控制敏感生物SOA易受气象变化影响.研究强调了控制人为排放对缓解NCP地区夏季二次污染的重要性.

关键词： PM_(2.5) 二次污染物人为排放气象华北平原

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New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1068-1082页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM Kevin E.TRENBERTH Tim BOYER Michael EMANN Jiang zhu Fan WANG Fujiang YU Ricardo LOCARNINI John FASULLO Fei ZHENG Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Dakui WANG Licheng FENG Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin CHEN Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN Karina VON SCHUCKMANN Yuying PAN Zhetao TAN Yujing zhu Wangxu WEI Guancheng LI Qiuping REN Lijuan CAO Yayang LU international center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA NSF National center for atmospheric research BoulderColorado 80307USA University of Auckland Auckland 1010New Zealand National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPennsylvania 19104USA institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China Oceanographic Data center Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Italian National Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic DevelopmentS.Teresa Research CenterLerici 19032Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sede di BolognaBologna 40128Italy South china Sea institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of MarylandCollege ParkMD20740USA Mercator Ocean international Toulouse 31400France Eco-Environmental Monitoring and research center Pearl River Valley and South China Sea Ecology and Environment AdministrationMinistry of Ecology and EnvironmentPRCGuangzhou 510611China National Meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China international research center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094China

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human *** 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record *** 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the *** with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of *** density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

关键词： ocean heat content salinity stratification global warming climate

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海洋环流模式的并行I/O优化研究

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计算机工程与应用 2024年第17期60卷 263-271页

作者：李云龙祝子杰孟祥飞朱小谦林鹏飞刘海龙李庚国家超级计算天津中心天津300457 国防科技大学气象海洋学院长沙410073 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100000

极端气象日益加剧,严重影响人类的生产生活。如何有效应对未来极端环境变化,更关乎国际竞争。因此,发展高精度高分辨率的地球系统模式推动气候变化研究至关重要。随着模式精度和分辨率的不断提高,I/O性能已成为制约模式计算效率和可扩... 详细信息

极端气象日益加剧,严重影响人类的生产生活。如何有效应对未来极端环境变化,更关乎国际竞争。因此,发展高精度高分辨率的地球系统模式推动气候变化研究至关重要。随着模式精度和分辨率的不断提高,I/O性能已成为制约模式计算效率和可扩展性的瓶颈。选取典型的海洋环流模式LICOM3作为研究对象,基于天河HPC系统,详细测试和分析了模式的I/O逻辑过程,发现在3K进程规模下I/O可占整体运行时间一半以上,是限制模式计算性能的关键因素。为此,设计并实现了主要输出过程的MPI-IO并行优化方案,显著提升了模式运行效率,基本解决了模式I/O瓶颈。测试结果表明,MPI-IO并行优化方案将输出时间占比从48.58%降到2.44%,将输出带宽提升到6.21 GB/s,约是原程序的14倍。此外,进一步分析了影响并行I/O性能的因素,以期为相关工作提供参考和指导。

关键词：并行I/O优化海洋环流模式 MPI-IO

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Large potential of strengthening the land carbon sink in china through anthropogenic interventions

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Science Bulletin 2024年第16期69卷 2622-2631页

作者： Xu Yue Hao Zhou Yang Cao Hong Liao Xiaofei Lu Zhen Yu Wenping Yuan zhu Liu Yadong Lei Stephen Sitch Jürgen Knauer Huijun Wang Jiangsu Key Laboratory of atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&Technology(NUIST)Nanjing 210044China College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Jiangsu Nanjing Environmental Monitoring center Nanjing 210013China Key Laboratory of Agrometeorology of Jiangsu Province Institute of EcologySchool of Applied MeteorologyNUISTNanjing 210044China institute of Carbon Neutrality Sino-French Institute for Earth System ScienceCollege of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry of CMA Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Life and Environmental sciences University of ExeterExeter EX44RJUK Hawkesbury institute for the Environment Western Sydney UniversityPenrith 2751Australia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNUISTNanjing 210044China

The terrestrial ecosystem in china mitigates 21%-45%of the national contemporary fossil fuel CO_(2) emissions every *** and strengthening the land carbon sink is essential for reaching china’s target of carbon ***,this sink is subject to large uncertainties due to the joint impacts of climate change,air pollution,and human ***,we explore the potential of strengthening land carbon sink in china through anthropogenic interventions,including forestation,ozone reduction,and litter removal,taking advantage of a well-validated dynamic vegetation model and meteorological forcings from 16 climate *** anthropogenic interventions,considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios,the land sink is projected to be 0.26-0.56 Pg C a^(-1) at 2060,to which climate change contributes 0.06-0.13 Pg C a^(-1) and CO_(2) fertilization contributes 0.08-0.44 Pg C a^(-1) with the stronger effects for higher emission *** anthropogenic interventions,under a close-to-neutral emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),the land sink becomes 0.47-0.57 Pg C a^(-1) at 2060,including the contributions of 0.12 Pg C a^(-1) by conservative forestation,0.07 Pg C a^(-1) by ozone pollution control,and 0.06-0.16 Pg C a^(-1) by 20%litter removal over planted *** sink can mitigate 90%-110% of the residue anthropogenic carbon emissions in 2060,providing a solid foundation for the carbon neutrality in china.

关键词： Carbon sink Forestation Ozone Litter removal

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梅雨降水季节预测的多方法比较

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大气科学学报 2024年第2期47卷 313-329页

作者：李琳菲杨颖朱志伟王蔚南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100086 上海市闵行区气象局上海201199

基于1961—2000年逐月降水观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了6—7月长江中下游(108°~123°E,27°~33°N)梅雨的时空分布特征。通过观测诊断和数值试验确定了影响梅雨异常偏多的3个前期因子:4—5月平均的西北太平洋海平面气压正异常;... 详细信息

基于1961—2000年逐月降水观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了6—7月长江中下游(108°~123°E,27°~33°N)梅雨的时空分布特征。通过观测诊断和数值试验确定了影响梅雨异常偏多的3个前期因子:4—5月平均的西北太平洋海平面气压正异常;3月至5月北大西洋海平面气压负变压倾向;1月至4月西伯利亚的2 m温度负倾向。利用这3个具有物理意义的影响因子构建了梅雨季节预测模型,该模型在训练期(1961—2000年)和独立预测期(2001—2022年)均具有显著的预测技巧(相关系数分别为0.79和0.77,均方根误差分别为0.59和0.68)。同时,基于相似的潜在预测因子,对比了利用偏最小二乘回归方法和5种机器学习方法(随机森林、轻量级梯度提升机、自适应提升、类别型特征提升、极端梯度提升)建立的预测模型的技巧。虽然训练期(1961—2000年)偏最小二乘回归和机器学习建模拟合效果更高,但在独立预测期(2001—2022年)上述模型的预测技巧显著降低(相关系数均低于0.44,均方根误差均大于0.93),出现了明显的过拟合问题。本研究强调梅雨的短期气候预测应建立在物理机制基础之上,而使用机器学习方法需谨慎。

关键词：梅雨季节预测物理经验预测模型机器学习

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Modification and validation of a new method to improve the accuracy of MODIS-derived dew point temperature over china's Mainland

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international Journal of Digital Earth 2023年第1期16卷 3513-3535页

作者： Wenbin zhu and Mei Cao Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture Qinghai UniversityXiningPeople’s Republic of China School of Information Engineering China University of GeosciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China

MODIS atmospheric profile products(MOD07_L2 and MYD07_L2)have been widely used for near-surface dew point temperature(T_(d))***,their accuracy over large scale has seldom been *** this study,we validated these two products comprehensively against 2153 stations over china's ***07_L2 was suggested by our study because it achieved higher accuracy in either of two frequently-used *** be specific,the root-meansquare error(RMSE)achieved by MOD07_L2 and MYD07_L2 was 5.82 and 7.42℃,*** this basis,a recent ground-based correction method was modified to further improve their *** focus is to investigate whether this ground-based approach is applicable to large-scale remote sensing *** results show that this new method showed great potential for T_(d) estimation independently from ground *** the introduction of MODIS land surface products,the RMSE it achieved for MOD07_L2 and MYD07_L2 was 5.23 and 5.59℃,*** analysis shows that it was particularly useful in capturing the annual average T_(d) *** R2,RMSE,and bias of annual average daily mean T_(d) estimates were 0.95,1.84℃,and 0.53℃,and those achieved for annual average instantaneous T_(d) estimates were 0.94,2.09℃,and 0.75℃,respectively.

关键词： Dew point temperature relative humidity atmospheric profiles MODIS remote sensing

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