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Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1024-1030页

作者： BUEH Cholaw LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

关键词：模拟亚洲东方季风气侯变化大气循环模型

Influence of interannual variability of Antarctic oscillation on mei-yu along the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley and its importance to prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第S2期48卷 61-67页

作者： GAO Hui~(1,2), XUE Feng~1 WANG Huijun~1 1. institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2. Department of atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044. China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Nanjing Inst Meteorol Dept Atmospher Sci Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China

Both correlation analysis and case study indi-cate that Antarctic oscillation (AAO) is closely related withsummer rainfall in eastern China. When AAO is stronger inboreal spring, especially in May, there is more mei-yu rain-fall in summer with a longer period along the Yangtze andHuaihe River valley. In contrast, there is less rainfall with ashorter period corresponding to a weaker AAO. Besides, ananomalous AAO changes the position and intensity of severalcirculation systems, which are important to summer rainfallalong the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley. Furthermore, theAntarctic sea ice is negatively correlated with the intensity ofAAO with a 6-month leading time. The result in this studyprovides a new method for the prediction of mei-yu.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation interannual variability mei-yu Antarctic sea ice.

Effects of zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature on tropical equilibrium states:A cloud-resolving modeling study

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第4期18卷 413-419页

作者： Xiaopeng Cui , Shouting Gao Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The effects of zonal perturbations of sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical equilibrium states are investigated based on a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations with imposed zero vertical velocity, constant zonal wind, and a zonal model domain of 768 km. Four experiments with zonal SST perturbations of wavenumbers 1 (C1), 2 (C2), 4 (C3), and 8 (C4) are compared to a control experiment with zonally uniform SST (C0). The 40-day integrations show that the temperatures reach quasi-equilibrium states with dis- tinct differences. C1 and C2 produce warmer equilibrium states whereas C3 and C4 generate colder equilibrium states than C0 does. The heat budgets in the five experiments are analyzed. Compared to C0, less IR cooling over smaller clear-sky regions in C1 and more con- densational heating in C2 are responsible for warmer equilibrium states. A reduced condensational heating leads to the cold equilibrium state in C3. The interaction between convective systems in C4 causes a decrease of condensational heating, which accounts for the cold equilibrium state.

关键词： Tropical equilibrium states Sea surface temperature Zonal perturbation Cloud-resolving modeling study

Empirical-Statistical Methodology and Methods for Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Variability of Different Temporal Scales

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2001年第5期18卷 844-863页

作者： Vladimir A. Lobanov State Hydrological institute, A MFONP, St. Petersburg, Russia LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Beijing 100029. State Hydrological institute AM FONP St. Petersburg Russia LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing China

Main problem of modern climatology is to assess the present as well as future climate change, For this aim two approaches are used: physic-mathematic modeling on the basis of GCMs and palaeoclimatic analogues. The third approach is based on the empirical-statistical methodology and is developed in this paper. This approach allows to decide two main problems: to give a real assessment of climate changes by observed data for climate monitoring and extrapolation of obtained climate tendencies to the nearest future (10-15 years) and give the empirical basis for further development of physic-mathematical models. The basic theory and methodology of empirical-statistic approach have been developed as well as a common model for description of space-time climate variations taking into account the processes of different time scales. The way of decreasing of the present and future uncertainty is suggested as the extraction of long-term climate changes components in the particular time series and spatial generalization of the same climate tendencies in the obtained homogeneous regions. Algorithm and methods for realization of empirical-statistic methodology have been developed along with methods for generalization of intraannual fluctuations, methods for extraction of homogeneous components of different time scales (interannual, decadal, century), methodology and methods for spatial generalization and modeling, methods for extrapolation on the basis of two main kinds of time models: stochastic and deterministic-stochastic. Some applications of developed methodology and methods are given for the longest time series of temperature and precipitation over the world and for spatial generalization over the European area.

关键词： climate change climate variability empirical-statistical approach spatial-temporal modeling inhomogeneous non-stationary

Sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to sea ice salinity in a coupled global climate model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2010年第6期53卷 911-918页

作者： LIU JiPing State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The impacts of the spatiotemporal variations of sea ice salinity on sea ice and ocean characteristics have not been studied in detail, as the existing climate models neglect or misrepresent this process. To address this issue, this paper formulated a parameterization with more realistic sea ice salinity budget, and examined the sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to the ice salinity variations and associated salt flux into the ocean using a coupled global climate model. Results show that the inclusion of such a parameterization leads to an increase and thickening of sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic and within the ice pack in the Antarctic circumpolar region, and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water and a strengthening of the Antarctic Bottom Water. The atmospheric responses associated with the ice changes were also discussed.

关键词： sea ice salinity coupled global climate model Arctic and Antarctic

Adjoint method for the optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第8期48卷 1270-1279页

作者： LIU Feng1,2, HU Fei2 & ZHU Jiang2 1. College of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 2. LAPC, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 1. College of Environmental Sciences Peking University 100871 Beijing China 2. LAPC Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences 100029 Beijing China

The optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources, which optimizes the economic object without violating environmental constraints, is an important and hard task to be conquered. In this paper, an adjoint method is developed to solve the problem. The penalty function is in-troduced to deal with the environmental inequality constraints, and Lagrange function is con-structed to derive the adjoint equation and the gradient of the object function. In this means, the gradient of the object function can be calculated by solving the adjoint equation, and the infor-mation from the gradient is used to make the object function descend and approach to an optimal solution after some iterations. A two-dimensional, simplified model is used for numerical experi-ments. The theoretical derivations are verified by the results of the experiments. Furthermore, the adjoint method is shown to be of excellent convergence and efficiency, which is adaptive to the fast development of air quality numerical models and super computers.

关键词： optimum planning, industrial pollutant sources, adjoint equation, penalty function, gradient.

THEORY OF MULTI-YEAR OSCILLATIONS IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED SY

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Science in China,Ser.B 1982年第6期25卷 630-645页

作者：季劲钧 institute of atmospheric physics Academia Sinica

In this paper, the phenomena of the multi-year oscillations in an ocean-atmosphere coupledsystem are discussed theoretically. We have used a zonally-averaged two-dimensional modelin which the atmospheric motion is baroclinic, and the ocean consists of two layers: the mixedlayer and thermocline. Both the atmospheric motion and oceanic motion are coupled each otherby dynamical and thermodynamical interactions. The results indicate that it is the process indeeper layer of ocean that leads to a free-oscillations with a period of about 3 years in thecoupled system. Thus, the important observational fact of the large-scale air-sea interactioncan be demonstrated.

关键词： THEORY OF MULTI-YEAR OSCILLATIONS IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED SY

PARAMETERIZATION OF SOLARRADIATION PROFILE IN CLOUD

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中国科学院研究生院学报 1990年第2期7卷 18-24页

作者： Ye weizuo(institute of atmospheric physics, Academia Sinica) 中国科学院中国科学技术大学研究生院79级研究生

Introduced in this paper is a scheme for calculating the vertical distribution of short-wave radiation through clouds, in which a simple parameterization of solar radiation profile in cloud is derived, and the drop-size is also included. Then, a wide range of comparisons arc made between different methods and with observations, whereby our model shows its advantages.

关键词： parameterizalion cloud solar-rabiation comparisons

DEVELOPMENT OF A "DRY BOUNDARY LAYER"

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中国科学院研究生院学报 1991年第1期8卷 32-38页

作者： Ye Weizuo(institute of atmospheric physics, Academia Sinica)

As one of applications of the DRS model the author developed, introduced in this paper is a model calculation of the advance of the planctary boundary laycr (PBL) before clouds form. First derived are quasi analytical formulations for the PLB developmcnt, which arc vcrificd by the latcr integration of the modcl. Then, in comparisons bcwecn with and without radiation, modcl results indicate that the sensible heat from. the sea is the main source of the PBL eddy, however, the radiative cooling not only prevents the cquilibrium air tcmpcraturc from approaching the surface temperature but also brings about a certain diurnal variation in the PLB thcrmal stucture.

关键词： dry bondary layer radialion tcmperaturc