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The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第1期21卷 75-86页

作者：端义宏伍荣生余晖梁旭东陈仲良 Department of Atmosphere Science Nanjing University Nanjing 210008 Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 Department of Atmosphere Science Nanjing University Nanjing 210008 Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 Dept. of Physics and Materials Science City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current. On an f-plane, the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow. A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane. The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced. But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane. The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes. On an f-plane, the convection tends to be symmetric, which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core. On the other hand, horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core, and hence the TC is not as intense. This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect. A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow. Thus, the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution. Dynamically, the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere. However, the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on a β-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii >450 km, and hence there is a lesser intensification.

关键词： β-effect uniform current asymmetric structure tropical cyclone intensity change

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Topographic effects on polar low and tropical cyclone development in simple theoretical model

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2009年第10期30卷 1271-1282页

作者：李子良傅刚郭敬天端义宏张美根 Department of Marine Meteorology Ocean University of China Shanghai Typhoon Institute State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration

The polar low and tropical cyclone type vortices over topography are assumed to be the axisymmetrical and thermal-wind balanced systems, which are solved as an initial value problem of a linearized vortex equation set in cylindrical coordinates. The roles of the sensible and latent heating, friction, and topography in the structure and intensification of the polar low and tropical cyclone type vortices are analyzed. The radial velocity, vertical velocity, azimuthal velocity, and the unstable growth rate including the topography effects are obtained. It is shown that the interaction between the flow and the topography plays a significant role in the structure and intensification of the polar low and tropical cyclone system. The analysis of the topography term indicates that, in the up-slope side of the mountain, the radial inflow and the vertical ascent forced by the mountain can intensify the polar low and tropical cyclone type vortex and increase the unstable growth rate. However, in the lee side of the mountain, the radial inflow and the vertical descent forced by the mountain can weaken the polar low and tropical cyclone type vortex and decrease the unstable growth rate of the polar low and tropical cyclone system. In addition, the evolutionary process and the spatial structure of the polar low observed over the Japan Sea on 19 December 2003 are investigated with the observational data to verify this theoretical result.

关键词： topography analytical solutions polar low tropical cyclone

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2004年7月北京和上海两次重大气象事件的异同及其科学问题

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气象学报 2004年第6期62卷 882-887页

作者：陶祖钰葛国庆郑永光高帆王迎春陈明轩端义宏杨引明北京大学物理学院大气科学系北京100871 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所北京100081 上海台风研究所上海200030

00 4年 7月 10日北京市出现的局地强降水导致城区交通严重拥堵 ,12日强对流伴随的飑线造成上海市重大的人员伤亡。这两次突发性气象事件都引起了社会公众和政府部门的高度关注。文中给出的观测分析和理论估算初步表明 ,这两次重大气象... 详细信息

00 4年 7月 10日北京市出现的局地强降水导致城区交通严重拥堵 ,12日强对流伴随的飑线造成上海市重大的人员伤亡。这两次突发性气象事件都引起了社会公众和政府部门的高度关注。文中给出的观测分析和理论估算初步表明 ,这两次重大气象事件都是由中尺度对流系统 (MCS)引起的。但是在卫星云图上 ,造成北京强降水的对流云团外形不规则、云顶温度较高、云体边缘不光滑并且没有密集的亮温梯度 ,与大多数MCS有很大的不同。此外 ,这两个事件都发生在季风极度北涌 ,同时冷空气又强烈南下的经向环流背景下 ,但两者发生的位置差别很大。文章认为对于这种非典型性MCS的结构和发生条件以及 2 0 0 4年夏东亚季风极度北涌是否与全球环流异常有关等科学问题值得引起重视。

关键词：强降水气象大气东亚季风强对流云顶温度环流背景严重 MCS 理论估算

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全国热带气旋讨论会召开

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中国气象报

作者：端义宏黄幸媛

本报讯　4月10—14日，中国气象学会第25届台风委员会和天气与极地气象学委员会在浙江岱山联合主办了第十三届全国热带气旋科学讨论会。本届会议组委会主席、台风委员会主任委员端义宏主持了会议开幕式，组委会名誉主席、天气与极地气...

本报讯　4月10—14日，中国气象学会第25届台风委员会和天气与极地气象学委员会在浙江岱山联合主办了第十三届全国热带气旋科学讨论会。本届会议组委会主席、台风委员会主任委员端义宏主持了会议开幕式，组委会名誉主席、天气与极地气象学委员会主任委员陈联寿院士在开幕式上致

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Application of Equivalent Black Body Temperature in the Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第4期21卷 465-475页

作者：陈佩燕端义宏余晖胡春梅 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Chongqing Meteorological Bureau

Using equivalent black body temperature （TBB） data retrieved from meteorological satellite GMS-5 during 1996-2002, the correlation between the circular symmetric/asymmetric component of TBB and the intensity of tropical cyclone （TC） at various time lags from 0 to 48 h is analyzed for the Northwest Pacific （0^-50~N, 120%155~E）, excluding landed and near-coast samples. It is found that the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall, the circular symmetric component, and the sum of the amplitudes of tangential wave numbers 1-10 （SA10） of the TBB between the radii of 0.8^o and 1.7^o are significantly and negatively correlated with the TC intensity at various time lags from 0 to 48 h. Especially, the maximum 24-h lag correlation coefficients reach -0.52, -0.58, and -0.625, respectively. A statistical prediction scheme for TC intensity is developed based on climatic persistent, synoptic, and TBB factors by stepwise regression technique. It is found that the variance contribution of the averaged TBB over the ring between 1.0^o and 1.5^o from the TC center ranks the fourth in the equation for 12-h TC intensity prediction, and those of the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall and the difference between maximum and minimum TBB between 1.1^o and 1.5^o rank the third and fifth respectively in the 24-h forecast equation. It is also shown that, with TBB factors, the following predictions are improved compared to the scheme without TBB factors： 48-h prediction for severe tropical storm （STS）, 12-h prediction for TC with a weakening rate greater than 15 m s-1/12 h, 24-h intensity prediction for TC with almost no intensity change, and 48-h prediction for TC intensifying faster than 10 m s^-1/48 h.

关键词： TBB (black body temperature) asymmetry intensity prediction tropical cyclone

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我国现代天气业务现状及发展趋势

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气象科技进展 2012年第5期2卷 6-11页

作者：端义宏金荣花国家气象中心中国气象局北京100081

回顾了我国现代天气业务发展历程,着眼于预报业务体系、预报技术和平台、预报员队伍培养等方面,概述了现代天气业务现状。结合我国现代天气业务发展的经验,跟踪国际气象科技发展前沿,展望了现代天气业务的发展趋势。

关键词：现代天气业务发展历程现状发展趋势

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Numerical Simulation of Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using a Coupled Air-Sea Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第5期27卷 658-672页

作者：端义宏伍荣生于润玲梁旭东 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

A coupled air-sea model for tropical cyclones （TCs） is constructed by coupling the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （MM5） with the Princeton Ocean *** numerical simulations of tropical cyclone development have been conducted using different configurations of the coupled model on the *** coupled processes are excluded,a weak initial vortex spins up into a mature symmetric TC that strongly resembles those observed and simulated in prior *** coupled model reproduces the reduction in sea temperature induced by the TC reasonably well,as well as changes in the minimum central pressure of the TC that result from negative atmosphere-ocean *** structures are successfully simulated under conditions of uniform environmental *** coupled ocean-atmosphere model is suitable for simulating air-sea interactions under TC *** effects of the ocean on the track of the TC and changes in its intensity under uniform environmental flow are also *** intensity responds nonlinearly to sea surface temperature （SST）.The TC intensification rate becomes smaller once the SST exceeds a certain *** stratification also influences TC intensity,with stronger stratification responsible for a larger decrease in *** value of oceanic enthalpy is small when the ocean is weakly stratified and large when the ocean is strongly stratified,demonstrating that the oceanic influence on TC intensity results not only from SST distributions but also from ***-sea interaction has only a slight influence on TC movement in this model.

关键词： tropical cyclone coupled air-sea model ocean-atmosphere interaction

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热带气旋威力惊人

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科学世界 2014年第10期 44-49页

作者：崔晓鹏端义宏陈佩燕

每年4～12月，都可能有热带气旋登陆我国沿海地区，其中8～9月是它们最常“光临”的时候。对这种威力巨大的天气现象，你了解多少呢？

关键词：热带气旋威力沿海地区天气现象

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台湾岛对气流扰动的影响

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地球物理学报 1993年第3期36卷 287-296页

作者：端义宏秦曾灏刘秦玉上海台风研究所上海200030 青岛海洋大学青岛266003

本文根据一个三维气流过山的模型,用数值快速傅里叶变换方法,讨论理想东北季风气流经过台湾岛产生的扰动气压场、扰动垂直速度场和水平流场.经与实际东北季风下台湾岛的气候特征进行比较,结果令人满意.

关键词：地形傅里叶变换气流扰动台湾岛

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The Effect of Warm Water and Its Weak Negative Feedback on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato(2017)

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 402-416页

作者：霍子墨端义宏刘欣 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China

Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. Although there might be other factors that also participated in the RI process, this study focused on air-sea interaction in tropical cyclone forecast and discussed the impact of warm water on the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone.

关键词： Typhoon Hato rapid intensification warm water air-sea coupled model sea surface temperature cooling

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