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Using Moving North Pacific Index to Improve Rainy Season Rainfall Forecast over the Yangtze River Basin by Analog Error Correction

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2015年第4期29卷 627-638页

作者：支蓉王启光封国林冯爱霞 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration Training Center China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration

A new analog error correction （AEC） scheme based on the moving North Pacific index （MNPI） is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general circulation model （CGCM） of the National Climate Center of China for the rainy season rainfall （RSR） anomaly pattern correlation coefficient （ACC） over the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. A comparative analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the new scheme using the MNPI is better than the system error correction scheme using the North Pacific index （NPI）. A Euclidean distance- weighted mean rather than a traditional arithmetic mean, is applied to the integration of the analog year＇s prediction error fields. By using the MNPI AEC scheme, independent sample hindcasts of RSR during the period 2003-2009 are then evaluated. The results show that the new scheme exhibited a higher forecast skill during 2003-2009, with an average ACC of 0.47; while the ACC for the NPI case was only 0.19. Furthermore, the forecast skill of the RSR over the MLRYR is examined. In the MNPI case, empirical orthogonal function （EOF） was used in the degree compression of the prediction error fields from the CCCM, whereas the AEC scheme was applied only to its first several EOF components for which the accumulative explained variance accounted for 80% of the total variance. This further improved the ACC of the independent sample hindcasts to 0.55 during the 7-yr period.

关键词： moving North Pacific index (MNPI) rainy season rainfall (RSR) mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) weighted analog error correction (AEC) degree compression

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浅谈如何破解行政非诉执行监督难题 007

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检察日报

作者：戴支蓉

自2018年最高检开展行政非诉执行监督专项活动以来，该项业务已成为各基层院行政检察最主要的数据增长点。整体而言，行政非诉执行监督无论在领域还是规模上都取得了很大突破，但大多仍是“数量驱动、个案为主、案卷审查”的监督模式，... 详细信息

自2018年最高检开展行政非诉执行监督专项活动以来，该项业务已成为各基层院行政检察最主要的数据增长点。整体而言，行政非诉执行监督无论在领域还是规模上都取得了很大突破，但大多仍是“数量驱动、个案为主、案卷审查”的监督模式，“数字赋能监督、监督促进治理”监督理念?

关键词：非诉执行

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Dry/Wet Changes and Their Standing Characteristics in China During the Past 531 Years

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第2期25卷 142-155页

作者：龚志强支蓉封国林张强 Laboratory for Climate Prediction of China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

Time series of the dryness-wetness（DW） index of 531 yr（AD 1470-2000） at 42 stations in regions A（most of North China and the east of Northwest China） and B（the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley） in China are applied to investigating the historical DW characteristics over various periods of the series with a relatively stationary average value using Bernaola-Galvan（BG） *** results indicate that region A/B underwent three drought-intensive periods（DIP;1471-1560,1571-1640,and 1920-2000/1501-1540,1631-1690,and 1911-1960） in the last 531 *** the DIP of the last 130 years,the frequency of DW transition has increased in region A,but not obviously changed in region B in comparison with the other two historical *** dry period started in about 1920 in region A with severe drought events occurring from the late 1970s to the early *** lasted for about 50-70 yr in this century,and then a DW shift took *** wet period in region B might maintain for the coming several *** variations of DW in region A are positively correlated with changes in temperature,but in region B,the correlation with temperature is *** is found that the number of DW indices of various categories within a running window is an exponential function of the running window *** dryness scale factor（DSF） is defined as the reciprocal of the characteristic value of the exponential distribution,and it has a band-like fluctuation distribution that is good for the detection of extreme drought（flood） clustering *** results show that frequencies of the severe large-scale drought events that concurrently occurred in regions A and B were high in the late 12th century,the early 13th century,the early 17th century,and the late 20th *** provides evidence for the existence of the time-clustering phenomena of droughts（floods）.

关键词： dryness-wetness index abrupt change temperature the dryness/wetness scale factor consecutive

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PROGRESSES AND PROSPECTS IN RESEARCH ON SEASON DIVISION AND SEASONAL CHANGES IN CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第1期19卷 28-38页

作者：赵俊虎封国林支蓉 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Progresses in the research for season division and seasonal changes are reviewed systematically in this paper,which particularly introduces the results of a national natural science foundation project,"the nonlinear identification of seasonal changes and its responses to global warming".The project developed two objective and quantitative methods for season division:the non-linear similarity measure(NSM) method and the regional multi-element optimal dissection(RMOD) method,which differ from traditional ones for season ***,the project further investigated seasonal changes and their responses to global warming,analyzed evolution characteristics of the starting date and length of seasons in history,revealed their relationships with extreme events and precipitation patterns in rainy seasons,and thereby built a research system for seasonal changes in China under the global warming ***,the authors make an outlook on the research for season division and seasonal changes and put forward several issues associated with season and climate changes that need to be further explored.

关键词： season division seasonal change global warming research progress

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Preliminary research on the relationship between long-range correlations and predictability

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Chinese Physics B 2011年第1期20卷 23-32页

作者：张志森龚志强支蓉封国林胡经国 College of Physics Science and Technology Yangzhou University Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

By establishing the Markov model for a long-range correlated time series （LRCS） and analysing its evolutionary characteristics, this paper defines a physical effective correlation length （ECL） T, which reflects the predictability of the LRCS. It also finds that the ECL has a better power law relation with the long-range correlated exponent γ of the LRCS： T = Kexp（-γ/0.3）＋ Y, （0 〈 γ〈 1） the predictability of the LRCS decays exponentially with the increase of γ It is then applied to a daily maximum temperature series （DMTS） recorded at 740 stations in China between the years 1960-2005 and calculates the ECL of the DMTS. The results show the remarkable regional distributive feature that the ECL is about 10-14 days in west, northwest and northern China, and about 5-10 days in east, southeast and southern China. Namely, the predictability of the DMTS is higher in central-west China than in east and southeast China. In addition, the ECL is reduced by 1-8 days in most areas of China after subtracting the seasonal oscillation signal of the DMTS from its original DMTS; however, it is only slightly altered when the decadal linear trend is removed from the original DMTS. Therefore, it is shown that seasonal oscillation is a significant component of daily maximum temperature evolution and may provide a basis for predicting daily maximum temperatures. Seasonal oscillation is also significant for guiding general weather predictions, as well as seasonal weather predictions.

关键词： long-range correlation information entropy effective correlation length predictability

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环境监察效能亟待提高

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环境科学与管理 2006年第A4期31卷 24-25页

作者：支蓉蓉南通市环境保护局江苏南通226006

近年来,随着经济的快速增长,环境监察领域的逐步拓展,环境监察工作日益繁重。然而由于现有环保法律不完善、监察力量薄弱,监察手段落后、管理体制不顺等原因,环境监察工作不断暴露出一些问题,提高环境监察效能已刻不容缓。作者结合工作... 详细信息

近年来,随着经济的快速增长,环境监察领域的逐步拓展,环境监察工作日益繁重。然而由于现有环保法律不完善、监察力量薄弱,监察手段落后、管理体制不顺等原因,环境监察工作不断暴露出一些问题,提高环境监察效能已刻不容缓。作者结合工作实践,就如何提高环境监察效能,提出首先要明确环境监察执法主体资格,理顺执法体制,其次通过加强硬件建设和队伍建设来强化执法手段和执法水平,并通过进一步完善公众参与机制和环境稽查机制,推动环境监察部门全面提高执法能力。

关键词：环境监察效能建议

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基于Lorenz系统提取数值模式可预报分量的初步试验

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大气科学 2012年第3期36卷 539-550页

作者：王启光封国林郑志海支蓉丑纪范兰州大学大气科学学院兰州730000 国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081

针对数值预报模式中存在的非线性混沌特性,从提取可预报分量的思路出发,阐述了在数值模式中提取可预报分量的方法,并利用Lorenz系统进行了相关数值试验。研究发现,Lorenz系统初始误差在相空间中的增长速度是不同的,某些方向的误差增长... 详细信息

针对数值预报模式中存在的非线性混沌特性,从提取可预报分量的思路出发,阐述了在数值模式中提取可预报分量的方法,并利用Lorenz系统进行了相关数值试验。研究发现,Lorenz系统初始误差在相空间中的增长速度是不同的,某些方向的误差增长速度较慢,即存在对初值扰动不敏感、相对稳定的可预报分量。根据数值模式切线性误差算子的特征值演化规律,提取出数值模式的可预报分量,并将模式变量在其基底上进行投影变换,建立了可预报分量数值模式。在此基础上,研究了Lorenz系统的混沌状态、模式参数误差及外部随机噪声对提取可预报分量的影响,发现基于可预报分量的数值模式,具有更好的预报技巧。

关键词：数值预报可预报分量奇异值分解 Lorenz系统

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温度破纪录事件预测理论研究

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气象学报 2009年第1期67卷 61-74页

作者：封国林杨杰万仕全侯威支蓉扬州大学物理科学与技术学院扬州225002 国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候环境重点实验室北京100029 扬州市气象局扬州225009

分析中国740个常规观测站1960—2005年日最高、最低温度器测资料,揭示了46年来中国日最高、最低温度破纪录事件的强度特征。利用历史观测资料验证了日温度极值服从高斯分布,并将历史资料中已知的高、低温破纪录事件作为初始条件,经冗长... 详细信息

分析中国740个常规观测站1960—2005年日最高、最低温度器测资料,揭示了46年来中国日最高、最低温度破纪录事件的强度特征。利用历史观测资料验证了日温度极值服从高斯分布,并将历史资料中已知的高、低温破纪录事件作为初始条件,经冗长的理论推导得到破纪录温度的期望值,与用纯极值理论进行迭代获得的结果相比,前者更符合观测事实,预测效果更好。在此基础上对中国未来可能发生的高、低温破纪录事件进行了预测评估,给出了各地区高、低温破纪录事件强度理论上所能达到的最大、最小值分布。结果表明中国各地区极端温度变化幅度差异明显,具有明显的区域特征,西南地区的极端高温事件强度未来处于较大上升期,西部相对较小;而极端低温事件强度降幅最大的区域位于东北和西北部地区,华中及西南地区处于相对平稳期。

关键词：破纪录事件极端事件预测

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Spatio-Temporal Correlation Analysis of Global Temperature Based on the Correlation Matrix Theory

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第2期24卷 150-162页

作者：支蓉封国林周磊龚志强 Department of Physics Yangzhou University Yangzhou 225009 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atomspherie Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean temperature data from 1948 to 2005 and random time series of the same size,temperature correlation matrixes（TCMs） and random correlation matrixes（RCMs） are constructed and *** results show that there are meaningful true correlations as well as correlation＂noises＂in the *** true correlations contain short range correlations（SRCs） among temperature series of neighboring grid points as well as long range correlations（LRCs） among temperature series of different regions,such as the El Nino area and the warm pool areas of the Pacific,the Indian Ocean,the Atlantic,*** different time scales,these two kinds of correlations show different features：at 1-10-day scale,SRCs are more important than LRCs;while at 15-day-or-more scale,the importance of SRCs and LRCs decreases and increases respectively,compared with the case of 1-10-day *** is found from the analyses of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of TCMs and corresponding RCMs that most correlation information is contained in several eigenvectors of TCMs with relatively larger eigenvalues,and the projections of global temperature series onto these eigenvectors are able to reflect the overall characteristics of global temperature changes to some ***,the correlation coefficients（CCs） of grid point temperature series show significant temporal and spatial *** average CCs over 1950-1956,1972-1977,and 1996-2000 are significantly higher than average while that over the periods 1978-1982 and 1991-1996 are opposite,suggesting a distinctive oscillation of quasi-10-20 ***,the CCs at 1-and 15-day scales both show band-like zonal distributions;the zonally averaged CCs at 1-day scale display a better latitudinal symmetry,while they are relatively worse at 15-day scale because of sea-land contrast of the Northern and Southern ***,the meridionally averaged CCs at 15-day scale display a longitudinal quasi-symmetry.

关键词： matrix theory correlation coefficient eigenvalue eigenvector spatial distribution

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浅谈环境行政处罚中的自由裁量权与司法变更

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环境监测管理与技术 1999年第2期11卷 9-11页

作者：王玮范健支蓉蓉南通市环境监理支队

解释了环境行政处罚中的自由裁量权与司法变更权的含义，论述了两者之间的关系，指出了现阶段自由裁量权与司法变更权不协调的原因，提出了正确行使自由裁量权的前提条件和必须遵循的３个原则，以及建立自由裁量权与司法变更权协调机制... 详细信息

解释了环境行政处罚中的自由裁量权与司法变更权的含义，论述了两者之间的关系，指出了现阶段自由裁量权与司法变更权不协调的原因，提出了正确行使自由裁量权的前提条件和必须遵循的３个原则，以及建立自由裁量权与司法变更权协调机制的措施，并就自由裁量权运用的监督作了阐述。建议：（１）国家立法机关会同国家环保总局、国家司法机关就如何掌握环境行政处罚中的自由裁量权、正确适用司法变更权进行研讨，以形成符合我国国情的可供实践中参照执行的若干意见；（２）修改、制定出与相关法律配套的实施细则及环境保护方面的程序法。

关键词：环境行政处罚自由裁量权司法变更环境监理

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