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全球变暖导致超强台风季节提前

科学通报 2023年第36期68卷 4885-4886页

作者：单楷越余锡平宋丰飞清华大学水利系北京100084 南方科技大学海洋科学与工程系深圳518055 中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心物理海洋教育部重点实验室青岛266100 崂山实验室青岛266100

随着全球变暖,以台风(飓风、热带气旋)为代表的极端天气事件活动特征发生显著变化,为人类社会经济可持续发展带来了前所未有的挑战.过去几十年间,台风活动位置极向移动[1~3]、台风强度整体增加[4,5]、超强台风事件趋频趋重[6,7]等现象... 详细信息

随着全球变暖,以台风(飓风、热带气旋)为代表的极端天气事件活动特征发生显著变化,为人类社会经济可持续发展带来了前所未有的挑战.过去几十年间,台风活动位置极向移动[1~3]、台风强度整体增加[4,5]、超强台风事件趋频趋重[6,7]等现象已经引起国际社会广泛关注.值得注意的是,超强台风相比于低强度台风往往会带来指数级增长的灾害影响,如历史上海河流域“63·8”大洪水,黄河流域“75·8”大洪水,以及今年给京津冀地区带来严重影响的“23·7”特大洪水等[8].

关键词：超强台风极端天气事件热带气旋全球变暖台风活动台风强度特大洪水灾害影响

20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估

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大气科学 2012年第6期36卷 1207-1222页

作者：宋丰飞周天军中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 北京100029 中国科学院研究生院北京100049 中国科学院气候变化研究中心北京100029

本文利用NCEP1和ERA40再分析资料,并结合观测资料,对最新公布的一套再分析资料——20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量进行了综合评估。本文主要是从气候态、年际变率、年代际变化三个方面,来评估20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量... 详细信息

本文利用NCEP1和ERA40再分析资料,并结合观测资料,对最新公布的一套再分析资料——20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量进行了综合评估。本文主要是从气候态、年际变率、年代际变化三个方面,来评估20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量。结果表明,在气候平均态上,20CR再分析资料基本合理再现了东亚夏季风区的高低层环流场(包括南亚高压、副热带西风急流、近地层风场)以及经向环流圈特征。但相较于NCEP1和ERA40,20CR所刻画的南亚高压偏强,西风急流偏北,对流层中上层温度系统性偏高。在年际变率方面,除了NCEP1在1967年之前存在偏差,使其结果和ERA40、20CR不同之外,三套再分析资料刻画的东亚夏季风变率在其它时段高度一致。三套资料在以纬向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数上的一致性,高于以经向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数,其中以低层纬向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数的一致性最高。20CR再分析资料可以较好地再现与东亚夏季风相联系的地表气温和降水年际变化特征,其刻画的地表气温正相关中心位置偏西、强度最强,且在河套平原地区有一个弱的负相关中心,而其描述的降水在孟加拉湾和长江流域较之另外两套再分析资料更接近观测结果,在热带地区和海上却反之。在年代际变化方面,20CR再分析资料未能合理再现东亚夏季风年代际减弱的现象,这也体现在不能合理再现青藏高原下游年代际变冷和"南涝北旱"降水型上,这主要是因为20CR再分析资料所刻画的东亚地区对流层中上层年代际变冷信号偏弱所致。而在百年时间尺度上,20CR再分析资料所刻画的东亚夏季风变化与观测较为一致;20CR再分析资料可以合理再现出东亚夏季风区1920年代前的显著冷期和1990年代之后的迅速增暖期,但对1920～1950年代相对暖期和1950～1980年代相对冷期的再现能力较差。

关键词： 20CR 再分析资料东亚夏季风气候态年际变率年代际变化

FGOALS-s2 Simulation of Upper-level Jet Streams over East Asia: Mean State Bias and Synoptic-scale Transient Eddy Activity

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 739-753页

作者：宋丰飞周天军 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activ- ity （STEA）. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient （MTG）, the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction （NCEP）/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data （NCEP2）. Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Sub- tropical Jet （EASJ） and the East Asian Polar-front Jet （EAPJ）. The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux （E） and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

关键词： FGOALS-s2 jet stream synoptic-scale transient eddy activity meridional temperature gradi-ent extended Eliaseen-Palm flux transient heat flux

Two Modes of the Silk Road Pattern and Their Interannual Variability Simulated by LASG/IAP AGCM SAMIL2.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 908-921页

作者：宋丰飞周天军王璐 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences National Satellite Meteorological Center

In this study, two modes of the Silk Road pattern were investigated using NCEP2 reanalysis data and the simulation produced by Spectral Atmospheric Circulation Model of IAP LASG, Version 2 （SAMIL2.0） that was forced by SST observation data. The horizontal distribution of both modes were reasonably reproduced by the simulation, with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.63 for the first mode and 0.62 for the second mode. The wave train was maintained by barotropic energy conversion （denoted as CK） and baroclinic energy conversion （denoted as CP） from the mean flow. The distribution of CK was dominated by its meridional component （CKy） in both modes. When integrated spatially, CKx was more efficient than its zonal component （CKx） in the first mode but less in the second mode. The distribution and efficiency of CK were not captured well by SAMIL2.0. However, the model performed reasonably well at reproducing the distribution and efficiency of CP in both modes. Because CP is more efficient than CK, the spatial patterns of the Silk Road pattern were well reproduced. Interestingly, the temporal phase of the second mode was well captured by a single-member simulation. However, further analysis of other ensemble runs demonstrated that the successful reproduction of the temporal phase was a result of internal variability rather than a signal of SST forcing. The analysis shows that the observed temporal variations of both CP and CK were poorly reproduced, leading to the low accuracy of the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern in the simulation.

关键词： Silk Road pattern barotropic energy conversion baroclinic energy conversion SST

Historical Evolution of Global and Regional Surface Air Temperature Simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How Reliable Are the Model Results?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 638-657页

作者：周天军宋丰飞陈晓龙 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere- Land System （FGOALS） model, simulated changes in surface air temperature （SAT）, from natural and an- thropogenie forcings, were compared to observations for the period 1850-2005 at global, hemispheric, conti- nental and regional scales. The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 1850-2005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2, as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs. The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends, and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations. The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data. The observed land-sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated. The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing, with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s. The observations featured warming trends （1906-2005） of 0.71, 0.68 and 0.79℃ （100 yr）-1 for global, Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages, which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42, 1.52 and 1.13~C （100 yr）-1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69, 0.68 and 0.73~C （100 yr）-l]. The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALS- s2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2. The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions. However, the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions. Over East Asia, the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） was stronger （weaker） than observed.

关键词： FGOALS 20th century historical simulation warming trends global scale hemispheric scale regional scale

中国地球气候系统模式研究进展:CMIP计划实施近20年回顾

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气象学报 2014年第5期72卷 892-907页

作者：周天军邹立维吴波金晨曦宋丰飞陈晓龙张丽霞中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院气候变化研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

在系统总结过去20年从CMIP1到CMIP4世界各国模式的综合情况基础上,回顾了中国气候模式参与CMIP科学试验的概况。在此基础上,慨述了CMIP5的试验设计,总结了参加CMIP5的5个中国气候模式的特点。随后,从高分辨率模式研发、地球系统模式研... 详细信息

在系统总结过去20年从CMIP1到CMIP4世界各国模式的综合情况基础上,回顾了中国气候模式参与CMIP科学试验的概况。在此基础上,慨述了CMIP5的试验设计,总结了参加CMIP5的5个中国气候模式的特点。随后,从高分辨率模式研发、地球系统模式研发、地球气候系统模式最为关键的分量——大气环流模式和海洋环流模式研发的角度,提出了中国地球气候系统模式发展面临的挑战,指出了中国模式发展面临的机遇。针对如何从国家层次协调以实现地球气候模式的可持续发展问题,给出了美国国家科学院最近发布的《推动气候模拟的国家战略》所提出的九条措施作为参考。

关键词：耦合模式比较计划(CMIP) IPCC报告大气环流模式海洋环流模式气候系统模式地球系统模式高分辨率模式

Development of Earth/Climate System Models in China:A Review from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Perspective

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2014年第5期28卷 762-779页

作者：周天军邹立维吴波金晨曦宋丰飞陈晓龙张丽霞 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project （CMIP） from phase 1 （CMIP1） to phase 4 （CMIP4）. The Chinese contribution to CMIP is summarized, and the major achievements from CMIP1 to CMIP3 are listed as a reference for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese models. After a description of CMIP5 experiments, the five Chinese models that participated in CMIP5 are then introduced. Furthermore, following a review of the current status of international model development, both the challenges and opportunities for the Chinese climate modeling community are discussed. The development of high-resolution climate models, earth system mod- els, and improvements in atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, which are core components of earth/climate system models, are highlighted. To guarantee the sustainable development of climate system models in China, the need for national-level coordination is discussed, along with a list of the main compo- nents and supporting elements identified by the US National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.

关键词： Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） IPCC Assessment Report atmospheric gen-general circulation model oceanic general circulation model climate system model earth sys-tem model high-resolution model

Chinese Contribution to CMIP5:An Overview of Five Chinese Models' Performances

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2014年第4期28卷 481-509页

作者：周天军陈晓龙董璐吴波满文敏张丽霞林壬萍姚隽琛宋丰飞赵崇博 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

An overview of Chinese contribution to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 （CMIP5） is presented. The performances of five Chinese Climate/Earth System Models that participated in the CMIP5 pro ject are assessed in the context of climate mean states, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, interan-nual variability, interdecadal variability, global monsoon, Asian-Australian monsoon, 20th-century historical climate simulation, climate change pro jection, and climate sensitivity. Both the strengths and weaknesses of the models are evaluated. The models generally show reasonable performances in simulating sea surface tem-perature （SST） mean state, seasonal cycle, spatial patterns of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） amplitude and tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI）, global monsoon precipitation pattern, El Ni-no-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） related SST anomalies. However, the perfor-mances of the models in simulating the time periods, amplitude, and phase locking of ENSO, PDO time periods, GPI magnitude, MJO propagation, magnitude of SST seasonal cycle, northwestern Pacific mon-soon and North American monsoon domains, as well as the skill of large-scale Asian monsoon precipitation need to be improved. The model performances in simulating the time evolution and spatial pattern of the 20th-century global warming and the future change under representative concentration pathways pro jection are compared to the multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models. The model discrepancies in terms of climate sensitivity are also discussed.

关键词： CMIP5 Chinese models seasonal cycle MJO GPI ENSO PDO global monsoon Asian monsoon global warming climate sensitivity

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基于遗传算法的横向减阻沟槽优化及机理

航空动力学报 2024年第5期39卷 226-233页

作者：宋居正李耕耘中航西安飞机工业集团股份有限公司西安710089

针对二维横向减阻沟槽的形状优化问题,提出了基于自由变形技术及遗传算法的优化方法。以三角形为初始减阻沟槽截面外形,基于自由变形技术对沟槽外形进行几何参数化。通过流场求解对沟槽壁面阻力进行计算,以沟槽壁面的流向气动阻力最小... 详细信息

针对二维横向减阻沟槽的形状优化问题,提出了基于自由变形技术及遗传算法的优化方法。以三角形为初始减阻沟槽截面外形,基于自由变形技术对沟槽外形进行几何参数化。通过流场求解对沟槽壁面阻力进行计算,以沟槽壁面的流向气动阻力最小化为优化目标,以遗传算法为优化算法,对沟槽外形进行气动减阻优化。优化结果表明:在来流马赫数为0.8时,优化后的沟槽外形相比于初始的三角形沟槽壁面,减阻率从6.4%增加至10.1%。优化方法表明,自由变形方法结合遗传算法可以为减阻沟槽形状优化提供更大的设计空间,为减阻沟槽形状的优化设计提供了新的设计方法。

关键词：横向沟槽气动减阻自由变形遗传算法外形优化