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Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2008年第2期23卷 174-180页

作者： Guoqing WANG1,Jianyun ZHANG2.Ruimin HE3,Naiqian JIANG4,and Xin'ai JING5 1 Senior Engineer,State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,nanjing 2.0098,{2. Research center for climate change,mwr,nanjing 2.002.,{2. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,{2. 2.Prof.,3 Engineer,State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,nanjing 2.0098,{2. 4 Prof.,5 Engineer,Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,{2. [a]Senior Engineer State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute nanjing 2.0098 china Research center for climate {2. mwr nanjing 2.002. china Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Zhengzhou 450003 china [b]Prof. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute nanjing 2.0098 china [c]Engineer State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute nanjing 2.0098 china [d]Prof. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Zhengzhou 450003 china [e]Engineer Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Zhengzhou 450003 china

Recently,runoff in many river basins in china has been ***,the role that climate {2. and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of *** this study,we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate {2. and human activities on runoff in river ***,we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate {2. and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by *** results of this study revealed that the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly *** addition,we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate {2.,with average reductions of 70.1% and 2..9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate {2.,*** together,the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.

关键词： Sanchuanhe River Hydrological simulation climate change Human activities Impact

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3 & ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), nanjing Institute of Meteorology, nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, nanjing 2.0044, china 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 3. National climate center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China 3. National climate center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it {2.s into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for climate Studies,National climate {2.,china Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,china Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china Meteorological Admin- istration/National climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2.& ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for climate Studies, National climate {2., china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 2.National Meteorological {2., china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 1. Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China 2. National Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China 3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Heart failure in china:epidemiology and current management

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2024年第6期21卷 631-641页

作者： Sheng-Shou HU the Writing Committee of the Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in china Fuwai Hospital National Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina

The Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in china(2.2.)intricate landscape of cardiovascularhealth in *** connection with the previous section,this sixth section of the report offers a comprehensive analysis of heart failure(HF)in *** is one of the most important cardiovascular disease in the 2.st *** mortality is equivalent to that of *** is an important public health problem that seriously affects the health of Chinese *** recent years,with the deepeningof understanding,the change of treatment principles,the innovation of treatment methods and the update of treatment guidelines,the in-hospital mortality of HF patients has declined,and the long-term prognosis is also ***,there are stilldifferences in the management level of HF among different hospitals in *** to improve the standardized diagnosis andtreatment level of HF in china remains an important challenge.

关键词： epidemiology diagnosis treatment

A three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation system:Scheme and preliminary results

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1212-1222页

作者： ZHU Jiang1,2. ZHOU Guangqing1, YAN Changxiang1, FU Weiwei1 & YOU Xiaobao1,3 1. International center for climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., {2. 2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, nanjing 2.0044, {2. 3. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 10002., {2. 1. International center for climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 3. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029 China

A new 3DVAR-based Ocean Variational Analysis System (OVALS) is developed. OVALS is capable of assimilating in situ sea water temperature and salinity observations and satellite altimetry data. As a component of OVALS, a new variational scheme is proposed to assimilate the sea surface height data. This scheme considers both the vertical correlation of background errors and the nonlinear temperature-salinity relationship which is derived from the generalization of the linear balance constraints to the nonlinear in the 3DVAR. By this scheme, the model temperature and salinity fields are directly adjusted from the altimetry data. Additionally, OVALS can assimilate the temperature and salinity profiles from the ARGO floats which have been implemented in recent years and some temperature and salinity data such as from expendable bathythermograph, moored ocean buoys, etc. A 2.-year assimilation experiment is carried out by using OVALS and the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the assimilation system may effectively improve the estimations of temperature and salinity by assimilating all kinds of observations. Moreover, the root mean square errors of temperature and salinity in the upper depth less than 42. m reach 0.63℃ and 0.34 psu.

关键词： data assimilation, 3DVAR, sea surface height, ARGO floats.

Simulation of 1991-2.05 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2.3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2.Guangdong {2. center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 4 National {2. center, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing climate center (BCC), {2. Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2.05 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2. By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2.00, 2.01, 2.02.and 2.04), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32.d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Turbulent intensity and its similarity function over an Inner Mongolian grassland during spring

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Science china Earth Sciences 2010年第5期53卷 773-780页

作者： YUE Ping1,2.3, NIU ShengJie2. HU YinQiao4 & ZHANG Qiang1 1 Key Laboratory of Arid climate change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid climate change and Reducing Disaster of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 73002., china 2.nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, nanjing 2.0044, china 3 Zhangye National Meteorological Observatory, Zhangye 734000, china 4 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000, china 1. Key Laboratory of Arid climate change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA Institute of Arid Meteorology CMA Lanzhou 730020 China2. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China3. Zhangye National Meteorological Observatory Zhangye 734000 China4. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Science Lanzhou 730000 China

Macroscopic reason for the development of turbulences in fluid is the conjunction action of velocity and temperature shears. We use the 2.08 spring flux observations in the surface layer over Inner Mongolian grassland, obtain the similarity functions of turbulent intensity under different stratification stability conditions, and calculate the clear day turbulent intensity in the spring, which is then analyzed and compared with the observed values of turbulent intensity. The results show that in the Inner Mongolian grassland, under the condition of spring unstable stratification of the surface layer, dependence of the similarity function of turbulent intensity on stratification stability follows a "2.3 power law". The structural function is a constant under the neutral stratification condition, and complicated under the stable condition. The calculated turbulent intensity has a close correlation with the observed one, which verifies the accuracy of the similarity functions and the suitability of the theorem of turbulent intensity in the grassland region.

关键词： turbulent intensity variance of velocity similarity function grassland

Progress in china’s climate {2. study in the 2.th century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2004年第S1期 5-13页

作者： ZHAI Panmao1,2. CHAO Qingchen1,2. ZOU Xukai1,2.1. Laboratory for climate Studies, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 2. National climate center, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china)

Studies on the 2.th century climate change in {2. have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in {2. has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 oC. More reliable results for the latter part of the 2.th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest {2., North {2. and Northeast {2., and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over {2. in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. Studies suggest that climate change in {2. seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in {2. seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of {2.'s climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.

关键词： th century climate change china