Study on Market risk of Oversea Merger and Acquisition of Resource-Based Enterprises
作者单位：Economics and Business School Xi'an University of Technology School of Economics and Finance Xi'an Jiao Tong University
会议名称：《第30届中国控制与决策会议》
会议日期：2018年
学科分类：120202[管理学-企业管理（含：财务管理、市场营销、人力资源管理）] 12[管理学] 1202[管理学-工商管理]
基 金：supported by NSFC(Program No.71672144,71372173,70972053) the Research Fund for the National Soft Science Research Program(Program No.2014GXS4D153) the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(Program No.20126118110017) supported by the Science and technology research and development program of Shaanxi province(Program No.2017KRM059,2017KRM057,2014KRM28-2) Key projects of the basic research program of Natural Science of Shaanxi Province(Program No.2015JZ021) the Science and technology research program of Xi’an technology bureau(Project No.2017111SF/RK005(2),SF1225-2) technology coordination innovation project of Shaanxi provincial science Program No.2016KTZDGY04-3 Scientific Research Program Funded by Shaanxi Provincial Education Department(Program No.15JK1544) social science funding project of Shaanxi province(Project No.12D231,13D217) Key project of xi’an social science planning fund Project No.17J85 Shaanxi development and Reform Commission bidding project Project No.ZBZB-2017-314-03
关 键 词：resource-based enterprises oversea M&A market risk Monte Carlo simulation method Historical simulation method
摘 要：By using historical simulation model and Monte Carlo simulation model, this paper measures the value of the market risk（VaR） of the oversea M＆A of Chinese resource-based enterprises. The research indicates that on the one hand Monte Carlo simulation method is superior to the historical simulation method in the accuracy of the measurement of market risk and characterization of extreme risk aspects. And the Monte Carlo simulation method based on the 95% confidence level is the best choice for measuring the market risk of oversea M＆A. On the other hand, most cases of oversea M＆A market risk are gradually reduced, but there are a few enterprises’ market risk tends to increase after M＆A. So these enterprises should be in time to find the existing problems, and adjust the strategy of M＆A, eventually to improve the core competitiveness of enterprises in the market. The conclusion provides rich theoretical and practical basis for the successful operation of resource-based enterprises after oversea M＆A.