China's Pathways to Achieving 40%～45% Reduction in CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP in 2020:Sectoral Outlook and Assessment of Savings Potential
作者单位：China Energy GroupEnvironmental Energy Technologies DivisionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
会议名称：《第十三届中国科协年会第7分会场-实现“2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放强度下降40-45%”的途径研讨会》
会议日期：2011年
学科分类：12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 08[工学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学]
基 金：supported by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the Energy Foundation the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth,Kyoto,Japan,through the U.S.Department of Energy under Contract No.DE-AC02-05CH11231
关 键 词：China energy end-use bottom-up modeling scenario analysis energy efficiency
摘 要：Achieving China’s goal of reducing its carbon intensity(CO2 per unit of GDP) by 40% to 45% percent below 2005 levels by 2020 will require the strengthening and expansion of energy efficiency policies across the buildings,industries and transport *** study uses a bottom-up,end-use model and two scenarios——anenhancedenergy efficiency(E3) scenario and an alternative maximum technically feasible energy efficiency improvement(Max Tech) scenario-to evaluate what policies and technical improvements are needed to achieve the 2020 carbon intensity reduction *** findings from this study show that a determined approach by China can lead to the achievement of its 2020 *** particular,with full success in deepening its energy efficiency policies and programs but following the same general approach used during the 11th Five Year Plan,it is possible to achieve 49% reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP(CO2 emissions intensity) in 2020 from 2005 levels(E3 case).Under the more optimistic but feasible assumptions of development and penetration of advanced energy efficiency technology(Max Tech case),China could achieve a 56% reduction in CO2 emissions intensity in 2020 relative to 2005 with cumulative reduction of energy use by 2700 Mtce and of CO2 emissions of 8107 Mt CO2 between 2010 and *** savings and CO2 mitigation potential varies by sector but most of the energy savings potential is found in energy-intensive *** the same time,electricity savings and the associated emissions reduction are magnified by increasing renewable generation and improving coal generation efficiency,underscoring the dual importance of end-use efficiency improvements and power sector decarbonization.