Applying the Adaptive Cycle to Modelling Environmental and Anthropogenic Cryospheric Changes and Linking Problems of Human Adaptation and Mitigation
作者单位：Department of Geography ＆ Environmental StudiesCarleton University International Geographical Union Commission for Cold Region Environments
会议名称：《Asian Conference on Permafrost》
会议日期：2006年
学科分类：07[理学] 0705[理学-地理学] 070501[理学-自然地理学]
关 键 词：cryosphere anthropogenic change environment adaptation mitigation
摘 要：The earth’s cold regions are experiencing accelerated rates of change,and the associated effects on land forms and land use raise many concerns for the health and well-being of those who live in cold regions,and also for sustainability for those living elsewhere（Gude et al.,2005）.Interconnectivity and complexity characterise social-environmental *** the changes being observed may be related to the physical environment and to climate in the first instance,contingent or related changes such as shifts in land use may be less *** changes in land use also have consequences for key factors influencing processes of environmental change for example,in changes in *** sphere of influence of the cold regions extends far beyond its geographical *** are many examples of changes with impacts at a global scale,such as the possibility of an ice-free shipping route across the Arctic ***,while north ward shifts in frost-free season length may be very useful to farmers in certain regions,but if the longer frost-free season is also accompanied by drought,from an agricultural perspective one limiting factor has simply been replaced by *** warming temperatures also lead to increases in sea-level rise,many ocean island states face grave *** these are potentially massive and complex problems extending beyond the cold *** scientific issues related to defining both the mechanisms and possible consequences of cryospheric change are subjects of debate but there is general agreement among scientific experts in many fields that more sophisticated and inclusive models for conceptualising change in complex systems are *** it is recognised that there is a need to find methods to describe both anthropogenic factors and natural environments as interconnected *** methods must also be able to address very practical problems of integrating knowledge from many different scientific *** that cr