Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin
会议名称：《中国水利学会2008学术年会》
会议日期：2008年
学科分类：082802[工学-农业水土工程] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0828[工学-农业工程] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：Nonprofit Industry Program of MWR (No.200801001) funded the study
关 键 词：climate change impact the Yellow River basin YRWBM model
摘 要：Increasing of CO and other trace airs in atmosphere will alter energy balance of climate system, and cause global warming in the future. Climate change has direct impact on hydrology. Later on, spatial and temporal distribution of water resources would change as well. The Yellow River is the second largest river in China, and is deficient in water re- sources. Global warming will make contradiction between water supplying and demanding be more conspicuous in the river basin. According to the spatial distribution of water resources, source of runoff in the Yellow River could be divided into four areas. YRWBM model was in- troduced and employed to study the effect of climate change on runoff in each region. Due to large uncertainty in output of GCMs, hypothetical climate scenarios were adopted. Based on the discharge simulation, responses of runoff to climate change were analyzed. And results show that runoff is more sensitive to precipitation change than that to temperature change, runoff will increase 14%～18% if precipitation increase 10%. And 1 degree rise in tempera- ture will lead to 3.7%～6.6% reductions in runoff. Runoffs in the second and the third re- gion are more sensitive to climate change than that do in other areas. Under the scenarios of 20% decrease in precipitation and 2 degree rise in temperature, runoff will reduce 29.3%～39.6%.