2011 Spring Seasonal Prediction of SDS in Northeast Asia Based on DGAEM
会议名称：《第28届中国气象学会年会》
会议日期：2011年
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：supported by a range of national programs,including National 973 Program (2011CB403404) National S&T Support Program(2008BAC40B02) Basic Research Fund under the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2010Z002,2009z001)
关 键 词：Discriminant Sand and Dust Storms Seasonal Prediction DGAEM Model
摘 要：Here we use a Discriminant Genetic Algorithm Extended Model（DGAEM） to diagnose and predict seasonal sand and dust storm（SDS） activities occurring in Northeast *** study employed the regular meteorological data,including surface data,upper air data,and NCEP reanalysis data,collected from *** regional,seasonal,and annual differences of 3-D atmospheric circulation structures and SDS activities in the context of spatial and temporal distributions were *** algorithms were introduced with the further extension of promoting SDS seasonal predication from multi-level *** probability was used as a substitute for posterior probability of multi-level discriminants,to show the dual characteristics of crossover inheritance and mutation and to build a non-linear adaptability function in line with extended genetic *** has unveiled the spatial distribution of the maximum adaptability,allowing the forecast field to be defined by the population with the largest probability,and made discriminant genetic extension *** addition,the effort has led to the establishment of a regional model for predicting seasonal SDS activities in East *** model was tested to predict the spring SDS activities occurring in North China from 2007 to 2010 and made the prediction in springtime 2011 by this *** experimental forecast resulted in highly discriminant intensity ratings and regional distributions of SDS activities,which are a meaningful reference for seasonal SDS predictions in the future.