Behavior Prediction of Telecom Consumers’ Choice with Packages Based on Improved Nested Logit Model
作者单位：School of Business Administration Northeastern University School of Management Liaoning University of Technology College of Information Science and Engineering Northeastern University
会议名称：《第25届中国控制与决策会议》
会议届次：25th
会议日期：2013年
学科分类：12[管理学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 07[理学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0802[工学-机械工程] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 0701[理学-数学]
基 金：supported by National Nature Science Foundation under Grant 71021061
关 键 词：Nested Logit Model Reference Dependent Model Reference Point Choice Behavior Predict Limited rationality
摘 要：Traditional nested logit model assumes that the consumers are complete rationality when predicting the choice of consumer behavior. But in actual, consumers are often limited rationality. Reference dependent model analyzes the consumers’ behavior with limited rationality, and it extends the value function of prospect theory in multiple attributes. This paper will improve the traditional nested logit model based on reference dependence. We will consider multiple attributes and multiple reference points, and predict the choice behavior of telecom consumers with limited rationality about packages. Finally, in the example analysis, we will utilize the actual data of some telecom operator to analyze the original and improved models. Through the nested logit regression analysis using software STATA, the results will verify the effectiveness of the improved model further.