Time Series Forecasting of Medicare Fund Expenditures Based on Historical Data——Taking Dalian as an Example
作者单位：Dept.of Business AdministrationNortheastern University Dept.of Information Science and EngineeringNortheastern University Dept.of Management Science and EngineeringDongbei University of Finance and Economics
会议名称：《第26届中国控制与决策会议》
主办单位：NE Univ;IEEE Ind Elect Chapter;IEEE Harbin Sect Control Syst Soc Chapter;Hunan UnivTechnol;Cent S Univ;IEEE;IEEE Control Syst Soc;Syst Engn Soc China;Chinese Assoc Artificial Intelligence;Chinese Assoc Automat;Tech Comm Control Theory;China & Cent S Univ
会议日期：2014年
学科分类：12[管理学] 02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 120402[管理学-社会医学与卫生事业管理(可授管理学、医学学位)] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 020204[经济学-金融学（含∶保险学）] 120404[管理学-社会保障] 10[医学]
基 金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71021061)
关 键 词：Medicare Fund Expenditures Medicare Fund Balances Variance Analysis Time Series Forecast.
摘 要：With the development of medical and health services, as well as the advance of treatment technology, there are more health demands in our society. The rapid growth of the absolute value of medicare fund expenditures has put lots of pressures on countries’ national health care system. However, the medical insurance fund is the direct key to the health care system. The increases of fund expenditures may cause a relatively shortage of fund and put pressures on the sustainable health care development. To respond to these issues, this paper analyzes the impact of medicare indicators on the medicare fund expenditures, and forecasts the monthly expenditure of medicare fund based on the method of time series forecasting, based on the historical data of medicare fund in the recent 5 years of Dalian, in order to prepare for policy adjustments and early warning. Eventually, it shows that medicare fund balances exist significant mean difference between the group of different medicare indicators. And forecasting error is 6.72%, which meets the actual demand.