Effects of Global Warming on the Production Patterns of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Qinghai
会议日期：2002年
学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020202[经济学-区域经济学]
基 金：Under the auspices of the National (G19980408) and CAS’s Key Project for Basic Research on Tibetan Plateau (KZ951-A1-204 KZ95T-06)
关 键 词：global wanning production pattern demarcation temperature accumulative temperature
摘 要：正The production patterns of agriculture and animal husbandry in different areas under present conditions were analyzed in this paper. A regression equation was established based on the demarcation temperature and its duration （days） and the present environmental condition in every area. The correlation is distinctive among the distributive patterns of agricultural and animal husbandry production, local heat quantity and duration （days） of different temperatures. According to the equation, the possible change of the production patterns of agriculture, animal husbandry and forestry in Qinghai was estimated under future climatic changes. Meanwhile, future thermal resources of Qinghai were also analyzed. The results showed that the accumulative temperatures of demarcation temperature would be increased by about 380℃-d. The days of duration will also be increased by 20 days under the condition of air temperature raising by 2℃and precipitation increasing by 10%. It will lead to expansion of Qinghai plantation area （especially economical crops in forest-line） and in the level of latitude. Drought in different areas will become more seriously because of the increase of the evaporation of soil surface.