国债与增长(英文)
作者单位：Fiscal Affairs Department
会议名称：《北京论坛（2011）文明的和谐与共同繁荣--传统与现代、变革与转型》
会议日期：2011年
学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 03[法学] 0302[法学-政治学] 020206[经济学-国际贸易学] 030206[法学-国际政治] 07[理学] 020203[经济学-财政学（含∶税收学）] 020202[经济学-区域经济学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0701[理学-数学]
关 键 词：GDP
摘 要：This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.