Multi-stage Sensitivity Analysis of Distributed Energy Systems: A Variance-based Sobol Method

作     者：Shangshang Wei Yiguo Li Xianhua Gao Kwang Y.Lee Li Sun Shangshang Wei;Yiguo Li;Xianhua Gao;Kwang Y.Lee;Li Sun

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education and Department of Energy and EnvironmentSoutheast UniversityNanjing 210096China IEEE Department of Electrical&Computer EngineeringBaylor UniversityWacoTX 76798USA 

出 版 物：《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 (现代电力系统与清洁能源学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第8卷第5期

页      面：895-905页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 080702[工学-热能工程] 07[理学] 08[工学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 070103[理学-概率论与数理统计] 0701[理学-数学] 

基　　金：supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51936003) National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFB1502904) 

主　　题：Sensitivity analysis uncertainty operation design optimization parameter characteristic distributed energy system(DES) 

摘      要：In the face of the pressing environmental issues,the past decade witnessed the booming development of the distributed energy systems(DESs).A notable problem of DESs is the inevitable uncertainty that may make DESs deviate significantly from the deterministically obtained expectations,in both aspects of optimal design and economic *** thus necessitates the sensitivity analysis to quantify the impacts of the massive parametric *** paper aims to give a comprehensive quantification,and carries out a multi-stage sensitivity analysis on DESs from the perspectives of evaluation criteria,optimal design and economic ***,a mathematical model of a DES is developed to present the solutions to the three stages of the ***,the Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out subject to the probabilistic distributions of the energy,technical and economic *** on the simulation results,the variance-based Sobol method is applied to calculate the individual importance,interactional importance and total importance of various *** comparison of the multi-stage results shows that only a few parameters play critical roles while the uncertainty of most of the massive parameters has little impact on the system *** addition,the influence of parameter interactions in the optimal design stage are much stronger than that in the evaluation criteria and operation strategy stages.