Global analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases reveals many staticphase countries including the United States potentially with unstoppable epidemic

作     者：Cheng Long Xin-Miao Fu Zhi-Fu Fu 

作者机构：Department of OrthopaedicsSichuan University West China HospitalChengdu 610041Sichuan ProvinceChina College of Life SciencesFujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350117Fujian ProvinceChina Anxi AIER Eye Hospital(AIER EYE Hospital Group)Anxi 362400Fujian ProvinceChina 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Clinical Cases》 (世界临床病例杂志)

年 卷 期：2020年第8卷第19期

页      面：4431-4442页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China No.31972918 and No.31770830(to Fu XM) 

主　　题：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Pandemic Testing density 

摘      要：BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is hitting many *** is hypothesized the epidemic is differentially progressing in different *** To investigate how the COVID-19 epidemic is going on in different countries by analyzing representative *** The status of COVID-19 epidemic in over 60 most affected countries was *** data of daily new cases of each country were collected from *** data of daily tests for the United States,Italy,and South Korea were collected from the Website of One World *** of daily positive COVID-19 tests in the two most affected states of the United States(New York and New Jersey)were collected from the website of the COVID Tracking *** were analyzed using Microcal Origin software with ANOVA algorithm,and significance level was set at a P value of *** The COVID-19 epidemic was differentially progressing in different *** analyses of daily new cases as of April 19,2020 revealed that 61 most affected countries can be classified into four types:Downward(22),upward(20),static-phase(12),and uncertain ones(7).In particular,the 12 static-phase countries including the United States were characterized by largely constant numbers of daily new cases in the past over 14 ***,these static-phase countries were overall significantly lower in testing density(P=0.016)but higher in the level of positive COVID-19 tests than downward countries(P=0.028).These findings suggested that the testing capacity in static-phase countries was lagging behind the spread of the outbreak,i.e.,daily new cases(confirmed)were likely less than daily new infections and the remaining undocumented infections were thus still expanding,resulting in unstoppable *** Increasing the testing capacity and/or reducing the COVID-19 transmission are urgently needed to stop the potentially unstoppable,severing crisis in static-phase countries.