A Predictive,Two-Parameter Model for the Movement of Reservoir Landslides

作     者：Robert E.Criss Wenmin Yao Changdong Li Huiming Tang Robert E.Criss;Wenmin Yao;Changdong Li;Huiming Tang

作者机构：Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesWashington UniversitySt.Louis MO 63130USA Faculty of EngineeringChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Earth Science》 (地球科学学刊（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第31卷第6期

页      面：1051-1057页

核心收录：

学科分类：081504[工学-水利水电工程] 081803[工学-地质工程] 08[工学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2018YFC1507200,2017YFC1501304) the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars of China(No.41922055) 

主　　题：reservoir landslide parsimonious model step-like displacement displacement prediction critical reservoir level 

摘      要：Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region,China,undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed,quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir *** behavior is consistent with motion initiating when the reservoir water level falls below a critical level that is intrinsic to each landslide,with the subsequent displacement rate of the landslide being proportional to the water depth below that critical *** motion terminates when the water level rises back above the critical level,so the annual step size is the time integral of the instantaneous displacement *** responses are incorporated into a differential equation that is easily calibrated with monitoring data,allowing prediction of landslide movement from actual or anticipated reservoir level *** successes include(1)initiation and termination of the annual sliding steps at the critical reservoir level,producing a series of steps;(2)prediction of variable step size,year to year;and(3)approximate prediction of the shape and size of each annual *** rainfall correlates poorly with step size,probably because its effect on groundwater levels is dwarfed by the 30 m annual variations in the level of the Three Gorges *** landslide behavior is suggested.