Research and application of real-time monitoring and early warning thresholds for multi-temporal agricultural products information

作     者：XU Shi-wei WANG Yu WANG Sheng-wei LI Jian-zheng XU Shi-wei;WANG Yu;WANG Sheng-wei;LI Jian-zheng

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsBejing 100081P.R.China Research Center of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Engineering TechnologiesBeijing 100081P.R.China Key Open Laboratory of Itelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technologies and SystemsChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBejjing 100081P.R.China Agriculture Information InstituteChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeiing 100081P.R.China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第19卷第10期

页      面：2582-2596页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 02[经济学] 0710[理学-生物学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1203[管理学-农林经济管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 0906[农学-兽医学] 0901[农学-作物学] 0703[理学-化学] 0902[农学-园艺学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：The Science and Technoloav Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS-ASTIP-2020-A11-02)is appreciated for supporting this study 

主　　题：agricultural product information monitoring and early warning threshold multi-temporal real-time dynamics 

摘      要：Monitoring and early warning is an important means to effectively prevent risks in agricultural production,consumption and *** particular,with the change of modes of national administration against the background of big data,improving the capacity to monitor agricultural products is of great significance for macroeconomic *** product information early warning thresholds are the core of agricultural product monitoring and early *** to appropriately determine the early warning thresholds of multi-temporal agricultural product information is a key question to realize real-time and dynamic monitoring and early *** on the theory of abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information and the research of substantive impact on the society,this paper comprehensively discussed the methods to determine the thresholds of agricultural product information fluctuation in different time *** on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBSC)and survey data,this paper used a variety of statistical methods to determine the early warning thresholds of the production,consumption and prices of agricultural *** with Delphi expert judgment correction method,it finally determined the early warning thresholds of agricultural product information in multiple time,and carried out early warning analysis on the fluctuation of agricultural product monitoring information in *** results show that:(1)the daily,weekly and monthly monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural products play an important early warning role in monitoring abnormal fluctuations with agricultural products;(2)the multitemporal monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural product information identified by the research institute can provide effective early warning on current abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information,provide a benchmarking standard for China s agricultural production,consumption a