Financial Factors,Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China

作     者：Hongjin Li Naifang Su Hongjin Li;Naifang Su

作者机构：Research BureauPeople's Bank of ChinaChina 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第28卷第4期

页      面：76-100页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 

主　　题：Bayesian estimation financial factors natural interest rate open conditions state-space model 

摘      要：China s financial market has undergone significant changes since financial deleveraging commenced and regulatory supervision was tightened in *** China-US trade tensions have further increased the uncertainties of external *** this article,we use a Bayesian approach instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimation in the Laubach-Williams model to estimate the natural interest rate by considering financial factors and open conditions,and analyze the relationships among the natural interest rate,economic activities and monetary *** find that technological and demographic factors are the main drivers of natural interest rates,while financial factors and open conditions also play important *** particular,shocks in the financial markets and the external economic environment in recent years are important reasons for the decline of China s natural interest ***,it is necessary to strengthen research on the estimation of the natural interest rate to ensure China s transformation into more price-based monetary policy and high-quality development.