Forecasting of COVID-19: spread with dynamic transmission rate
作者机构：Institute of Public Safety ResearchDepartment of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China
出 版 物：《Journal of Safety Science and Resilience》 (安全科学与韧性（英文）)
年 卷 期：2020年第1卷第2期
页 面：91-96页
核心收录：
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
基 金：This work is supported by National Key R and D Program of China(No.2017YFC0803300) National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.7204100828,91646201,U1633203) High-tech Discipline Con-struction Funding for Universities in Beijing(Safety Science and Engi-neering)and Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Re-sponse Science
主 题：COVID-19 SEIR Emergency management Dynamic transmission rate Basic reproduction number
摘 要：The COVID-19 was firstly reported in Wuhan,Hubei province,and it was brought to all over China by people travelling for Chinese New *** pandemic coronavirus with its catastrophic effects is now a global *** of COVID-19 spread has attracted a great attention for public health ***,few re-searchers look into the relationship between dynamic transmission rate and preventable measures by *** this paper,the SEIR(Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered)model is employed to investigate the spread of *** epidemic spread is divided into two stages:before and after *** intervention,the transmission rate is assumed to be a constant since individual,community and government response has not taken into *** intervention,the transmission rate is reduced dramatically due to the societal actions or measures to reduce and prevent the spread of *** transmission rate is assumed to follow an exponential function,and the removal rate is assumed to follow a power exponent *** removal rate is increased with the evolution of the *** the real data,the model and parameters are *** transmission rate without measure is calculated to be 0.033 and 0.030 for Hubei and outside Hubei province,*** the model is established,the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei province,France and USA is *** results,USA performs the worst according to the dynamic *** model has provided a mathematical method to evaluate the effectiveness of the government response and can be used to forecast the spread of COVID-19 with better performance.
维普期刊数据库