A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2
A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular DiagnosticsSchool of Public HealthXiamen University4221-117 South Xiang'an RoadXiang'an DistrictXiamen City 361102Fujian ProvincePeople's Republic of China Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention405 Furong Middle Road Section OneKaifu DistrictChangsha City 410001Hunan ProvincePeople's Republic of China Division of Public HealthSchool of MedicineUniversity of Utah201 Presidents CircleSalt Lake CityUT 84112USA Department of MathematicsSchool of ScienceBeijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijingPeople's Republic of China Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced TechnologyChinese Academy of SciencesShenzhenGuangdong ProvincePeople's Republic of China Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention3145 Jingyang Big RoadLvyuan DistrictChangchun 130062Jilin ProvincePeople's Republic of China
出 版 物：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病（英文）)
年 卷 期：2020年第9卷第4期
页 面：35-49页
核心收录：
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
基 金：This work was partly supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics(SKLVD2019KF005) the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(INV-005834) the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province(No:2020Y0002) the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program(No:3502Z2020YJ03) the Hunan Provincial Construction of Innovative Provinces Special Social Development Areas Key Research and Development Project(2020SK3012) the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Coronavirus Disease 2019 Science and Technology Research Project in 2020(2020HY320003)
主 题：Transmissibility SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Compartmental model Age-specific dynamics
摘 要：Background:The novel coronavirus,severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also called 2019-nCoV)causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age *** study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical ***:An epidemiological model with five compartments(susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed[SEIAR])was developed based on observed transmission *** disease 2019(COVID-19)cases were divided into four age groups:group 1,those≤14years old;group 2,those 15 to 44years old;group 3,those 45 to 64years old;and group 4,those≥65 years *** model was initially based on cases(including imported cases and secondary cases)collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19,*** dataset,from Jilin Province,was used to test the ***:The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group(P0.001).In Hunan Province,the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3(median:β43=7.71×10-9;SAR43=3.86×10-8),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=3.07×10-9;SAR34=1.53×10-8),group 2 to 2(median:β22=1.24×10-9;SAR22=6.21×10-9),and group 3 to 1(median:β31=4.10×10-10;SAR31=2.08×10-9).The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3(median:β33=1.64×10-19;SAR33=8.19×10-19),followed by group 4 to 4(median:β44=3.66×10-17;SAR44=1.83×10-16),group 3 to 2(median:β32=1.21×10-16;SAR32=6.06×10-16),and group 1 to 4(median:β14=7.20×10-14;SAR14=3.60×10-13).In Jilin Province,the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4(median:β43=4.27×10-8;SAR43=2.13×10-7),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=1.81×10-8;SAR34=9.03×10-8).Conclusions:SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged(45 to 64 years old)and elderly(≥65 years old)***(≤14 years old)have very low susceptibility to *** study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most pre
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