Insights into Convective-scale Predictability in East China: Error Growth Dynamics and Associated Impact on Precipitation of Warm-Season Convective Events

作     者：Xiaoran ZHUANG Jinzhong MIN Liu ZHANG Shizhang WANG Naigeng WU Haonan ZHU Xiaoran ZHUANG;Jinzhong MIN;Liu ZHANG;Shizhang WANG;Naigeng WU;Haonan ZHU

作者机构：Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Jiangsu Meteorological ObservatoryJiangsu Meteorological BureauNanjing 210008China Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather PredictionInstitute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 210044China Chongqing Climate CenterChongqing Meteorological BureauChongqing 401120China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第37卷第8期

页      面：893-911页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1502103) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41430427 and 41705035) the China Scholarship Council the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX17_0876) 

主　　题：convective-scale predictability error growth strong forcing weak forcing scale interaction 

摘      要：This study investigated the regime-dependent predictability using convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized with different initial condition perturbations in the Yangtze and Huai River basin(YHRB)of East *** scale-dependent error growth(ensemble variability)and associated impact on precipitation forecasts(precipitation uncertainties)were quantitatively explored for 13 warm-season convective events that were categorized in terms of strong forcing and weak *** forecast error growth in the strong-forcing regime shows a stepwise increase with increasing spatial scale,while the error growth shows a larger temporal variability with an afternoon peak appearing at smaller scales under weak *** leads to the dissimilarity of precipitation uncertainty and shows a strong correlation between error growth and precipitation across spatial *** lateral boundary condition errors exert a quasi-linear increase on error growth with time at the larger scale,suggesting that the large-scale flow could govern the magnitude of error growth and associated precipitation uncertainties,especially for the strong-forcing *** comparisons between scale-based initial error sensitivity experiments show evident scale interaction including upscale transfer of small-scale errors and downscale cascade of larger-scale ***,small-scale errors are found to be more sensitive in the weak-forcing regime than those under strong ***,larger-scale initial errors are responsible for the error growth after 4 h and produce the precipitation uncertainties at the meso-β-***,these results can be used to explain underdispersion issues in convective-scale ensemble forecasts and provide feedback for ensemble design over the YHRB.