Predict new cases of the coronavirus 19;in Michigan,*** other countries using Crow-AMSAA method

作     者：Yanshuo Wang 

作者机构：Data Mining and Reliability ConsultantLLLW LLC Inc.P.O Box 25124LansingMI48909USA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第5卷第1期

页      面：459-477页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：The author appreciates the data which provided by website in reference(WorldOMeters).(Click On Detroit News,2020)and(New York City Gov) The author thanks my friend KevinWeiss who is working as principal quality engineer at ZF to edit this paper,and also thanks the Fulton Findings company to provide the SuperSmith package 

主　　题：COVID19 Prediction Modeling Crow-AMSAA NHPP Infected cases Deaths 

摘      要：Statistical predictions are useful to predict events based on statistical *** data is useful to determine outcomes based on inputs and *** Crow-AMSAA method will be explored to predict new cases of Coronavirus 19(COVID19).This method is currently used within engineering reliability design to predict failures and evaluate the reliability *** author intents to use this model to predict the COVID19 cases by using daily reported data from Michigan,New York City,U.S.A and other *** piece wise Crow-AMSAA(CA)model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases during the start of the COVID19 *** slope b of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death *** traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution,but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process(NHPP)which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19,especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance,isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.