August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

作     者：ZHANG Heli HE Qing CHEN Feng Dogdurbek CHONTOEV Rysbek SATYLKANOV Bakytbek ERMENBAEV CHEN Youping ZHANG Heli;HE Qing;CHEN Feng;Dogdurbek CHONTOEV;Rysbek SATYLKANOV;Bakytbek ERMENBAEV;CHEN Youping

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of the Chinese Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring EcologyInstitute of Desert MeteorologyChinese Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-SecurityInstitute of International Rivers and Eco-SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific CenterInstitute of Water Problems and Hydro PowerNational Academy of Sciences of The Kyrgyz RepublicBishkekKyrgyzstan 

出 版 物：《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 (地质学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第94卷第3期

页      面：682-689页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606401) NSFC (U1803341) the 2nd Scientific Expedition to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (No. 2019QZKK0102) the national youth talent support program 

主　　题：tree rings runoff reconstruction snow cover Kara Darya River 

摘      要：A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representative of runoff over the past 606 years. The drought of the 1960 s-1990 s resulted in low runoff levels during the past 50 years;however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Kara Darya because the runoff reconstruction showed additional extremely low runoff prior to the 20 th century. The reconstruction will provide a long-term perspective on runoff variation in the Kara Darya River basin, aid sustainable water resource management and be useful in guiding expectations of future variations and water resource planning.