Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years

作     者：CHEN Yong YANG Guojing ZHOU Lihua LIAO Jie WEI Xuan CHEN Yong;YANG Guojing;ZHOU Lihua;LIAO Jie;WEI Xuan

作者机构：Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Institutes of Science and DevelopmentChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China 

出 版 物：《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 (地质学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第94卷第3期

页      面：637-645页

核心收录：

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 07[理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0705[理学-地理学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 070501[理学-自然地理学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No 2018YFA0606402) National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 41601587, 41671187) 

主　　题：Oasis change natural factors human factors Minqin Oasis 

摘      要：The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socio-economic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.