Bayesian inference for ammunition demand based on Gompertz distribution
Bayesian inference for ammunition demand based on Gompertz distribution作者机构：Department of Equipment Command and ManagementShijiazhuang CampusArmy Engineering UniversityShijiazhuang 050003China Unit 73127 of the PLAFuzhou 350503China The Ninth Comprehensive Training Base of ArmyZhangjiakou 075000China Army Infantry College of the PLAShijiazhuang 050003China Unit 68303 of the PLAGolmud 816000China
出 版 物：《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 (系统工程与电子技术（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2020年第31卷第3期
页 面：567-577页
核心收录：
学科分类：02[经济学] 0808[工学-电气工程] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 07[理学] 08[工学] 070103[理学-概率论与数理统计] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 082603[工学-火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] 0826[工学-兵器科学与技术] 0802[工学-机械工程] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 0701[理学-数学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）]
基 金：the Army Scientific Research(KYSZJWJK1744 012016012600B11403)
主 题：ammunition demand prediction Bayesian inference Gompertz distribution system contribution Markov chain-Monte Carlo(MCMC)method
摘 要：Aiming at the problem that the consumption data of new ammunition is less and the demand is difficult to predict,combined with the law of ammunition consumption under different damage grades,a Bayesian inference method for ammunition demand based on Gompertz distribution is *** Bayesian inference model based on Gompertz distribution is constructed,and the system contribution degree is introduced to determine the weight of the multi-source *** the case where the prior distribution is known and the distribution of the field data is unknown,the consistency test is performed on the prior information,and the consistency test problem is transformed into the goodness of the fit test *** the Bayesian inference is solved by the Markov chain-Monte Carlo(MCMC)method,and the ammunition demand under different damage grades is *** example verifies the accuracy of this method and solves the problem of ammunition demand prediction in the case of insufficient samples.
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