Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability Considering Temporal Variations of Rock Mass Properties

作     者：Xin Gu Lin Wang Fuyong Chen Hongrui Li Wengang Zhang 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain AreaChongqing UniversityChongqingChina School of Civil EngineeringChongqing UniversityChongqingChina National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir AreasChongqing UniversityChongqingChina 

出 版 物：《Computers, Materials & Continua》 (计算机、材料和连续体（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第63卷第4期

页      面：263-281页

核心收录：

学科分类：0831[工学-生物医学工程（可授工学、理学、医学学位）] 0808[工学-电气工程] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 07[理学] 0805[工学-材料科学与工程（可授工学、理学学位）] 0701[理学-数学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 0801[工学-力学（可授工学、理学学位）] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

基　　金：the financial support from Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(cstc2018jcyjAX0632) the Venture&Innovation Support Program for Chongqing Overseas Returnees(cx2017123) as well as Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Disaster Prevention&Control for Banks and Structures in Three Gorges Reservoir Area(SXAPGC18ZD01,SXAPGC18YB03) In addition,the authors would like to express their appreciation to Liu et al.[Liu,Zhang and Fu(2014)]for making their test results available for this work 

主　　题：Reservoir slope stability pH value reliability analysis temporal variation strength degradation 

摘      要：Temporal variation of rock mass properties,especially the strength degradation due to drying-wetting cycles as well as the acidic wetting fluid(rainfall or reservoir water)is crucial to stability of reservoir rock *** on a series of drying-wetting cycling and experiments considering the influences of pH values,the degradation degree models of the reduced cohesion𝑐𝑐′,friction angle𝜑𝜑′are developed.2D stability analysis of the slope is subsequently carried out to calculate the factor of safety(Fs)via limit equilibrium method(LEM)and a predictive model of Fs is built using multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS),revealing the effect of the drying-wetting cycles and pH *** reliability analysis by Monte Carlo simulation is performed to rationally consider the uncertainty and the temporal variation of the shear strength parameters of rock *** indicate that the MARS-based model can estimate the Fs *** Fs and the reliability indexβdecrease with increase of drying-wetting cycles,and the temporal variation of rock mass properties has significant influence on the slope *** the temporal variation of rock properties may overestimate the Fs and reliability indexβin the longer term.