Rising challenge of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in China:a predictive study using Markov modeling

作     者：Bing-Ying Li Wen-Pei Shi Chang-Ming Zhou Qi Zhao Vinod K Diwan Xu-Bin Zheng Yang Li Sven Hoffner Biao Xu Li Bing-Ying;Shi Wen-Pei;Zhou Chang-Ming;Zhao Qi;Diwan Vinod K;Zheng Xu-Bin;Li Yang;Hoffner Sven;Xu Biao

作者机构：School of Public HealthFudan UniversityShanghaiChina Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment(Fudan University)National Health CommissionShanghaiChina Department of Cancer preventionFudan University Shanghai Cancer CenterShanghaiChina Department of Public Health Sciences(Global Health/IHCAR)Karolinska InstitutetStockholmSweden Department of NephrologyZhongshan HospitalFudan UniversityShanghaiChina 

出 版 物：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第9卷第3期

页      面：57-64页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

基　　金：The study was supported by the Swedish Research Council(No.540–2013-8797 to SH) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81361138019 to BX)joint project(VR-NSFC) the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2018ZX10715012–4 to BX) 

主　　题：Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis Markov chains Prevalence Prevention and control 

摘      要：Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in *** study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control ***:Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100000 *** prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis(DS-TB+)were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or ***:Without any intervention changes to current conditions,the prevalence of DS-TB+was projected to decline 67.7%by 2050,decreasing to 20 per 100000 people,whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/***,86.2%of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of *** the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50%or 70%at 5%per year,the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2%*** the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70%or 100%at 5%per year,MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%,*** both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%,the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100000 by a 51.7%***:MDR-TB,especially untreated MDR-TB,would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control *** designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.