Comparative risk evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the Libyan EPSA IV and its modified model LEPSA I

作     者：Saad A.Balhasan Brian F.Towler Khaled O.AlHadramy Biltayib M.Biltayib 

作者机构：American University of Ras Al KhaimahRas Al KhaimahUnited Arab Emirates The University of QueenslandQueenslandAustralia Australian College of KuwaitKuwait 

出 版 物：《Petroleum》 (油气（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第6卷第2期

页      面：206-213页

核心收录：

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 0808[工学-电气工程] 08[工学] 0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 0817[工学-化学工程与技术] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0827[工学-核科学与技术] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0703[理学-化学] 0814[工学-土木工程] 082002[工学-油气田开发工程] 

基　　金：Libyan National Corporation 

主　　题：Production sharing Agreement Risk assessment 

摘      要：This paper extends the analysis of the fourth model of Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement(EPSA IV)and our proposed modification of the Libyan Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement(LEPSA I)to field *** paper focuses on risk evaluation and analyzing the sensitivity of the fiscal terms of EPSA IV model(cost recovery,A factors,and B factors)and the fiscal terms of LEPSA I model(initial production share,the geologic probability of success,and the oil reference price)on the profitability indicators of Net Present Value(NPV)and Internal Rate of Return(IRR).The deterministic analysis method and stochastic analysis method using the Monte Carlo Simulation have been used in this *** two methods were used to show the probability distribution of the NPV and IRR on the basis of the random variables of fiscal terms in the two models of EPSA IV and LEPSA I,*** simulation output of the development field scenario of enhanced oil recovery using CO2 injection showed that the cost recovery is a very sensitive term on the NPV and IRR in the EPSA IV ***,the A and B factors in the EPSA IV model have different sensitivities on the NPV and *** B factor 3 and B factor 1 are more sensitive on the NPV and IRR than are other *** B factor 4 and A factor 4 have shown less effect on the NPV and IRR than the other ***,the simulation output showed that the initial share and reference price are more sensitive to the NPV and IRR than the probability of success on the basis of the LEPSA I model.