Nomograms predicting long-term survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A population-based study

作     者：Jia-Yuan Wu Yu-Feng Wang Huan Ma Sha-Sha Li Hui-Lai Miao 

作者机构：Department of Clinical Researchthe Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiang 524001Guangdong ProvinceChina School of Public HealthGuangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiang 524023Guangdong ProvinceChina Department of Hepatobiliary Surgerythe Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiang 524001Guangdong ProvinceChina Department of Hepatobiliary Surgerythe Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiang 524003Guangdong ProvinceChina 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 (世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第26卷第5期

页      面：535-549页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81702270 the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong,No.2015A030313827 The Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University Clinical Research Program,No.LCYJ2018C012 

主　　题：Invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm Pancreas Nomogram Overall survival Cancer-specific survival Surgical resection 

摘      要：BACKGROUND There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the *** To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survival outcome of patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the *** Data of 1219 patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms after resection were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database,and randomly divided into the training(n=853)and the validation(n=366)*** on the Cox regression model,nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for an individual *** performance of the nomograms was measured according to discrimination,calibration,and clinical ***,we compared the predictive accuracy of the nomograms with that of the traditional staging *** In the training cohort,age,marital status,histological type,T stage,N stage,M stage,and chemotherapy were selected to construct *** with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th staging system,the nomograms were generally more *** nomograms passed the calibration steps by showing high consistency between actual probability and nomogram *** net classification improvements and integrated discrimination improvements suggested that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms exceeded that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging *** respect to decision curve analyses,the nomograms exhibited more preferable net benefit gains than the staging system across a wide range of threshold *** The nomograms show improved predictive accuracy,discrimination capability,and clinical utility,which can be used as reliable tools for risk classification and treatment recommendations.