Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions due to Uncertainty in Initial Conditions

作     者：Chenxi WANG Zhihua ZENG Ming YING Chenxi WANG;Zhihua ZENG;Ming YING

作者机构：Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第37卷第3期

页      面：278-290页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575108 and 41475082) 

主　　题：uncertainty tropical cyclone intensity initial conditions 

摘      要：Focusing on the role of initial condition uncertainty,we use WRF initial perturbation ensemble forecasts to investigate the uncertainty in intensity forecasts of Tropical Cyclone(TC)Rammasun(1409),which is the strongest TC to have made landfall in China during the past 50 *** results indicate that initial condition uncertainty leads to TC forecast uncertainty,particularly for TC *** uncertainty increases with forecast time,with a more rapid and significant increase after 24 *** predicted TC develops slowly before 24 h,and at this stage the TC in the member forecasting the strongest final TC is not the strongest among all ***,after 24 h,the TC in this member strengthens much more than that the TC in other *** variations in convective instability,precipitation,surface upward heat flux,and surface upward water vapor flux show similar characteristics to the variation in TC intensity,and there is a strong correlation between TC intensity and both the surface upward heat flux and the surface upward water vapor *** initial condition differences that result in the maximum intensity difference are smaller than the errors in the analysis *** in initial humidity,and to a lesser extent initial temperature differences,at the surface and at lower heights are the key factors leading to differences in the forecasted TC *** differences in initial humidity and temperature relate to both the overall values and distribution of these parameters.