Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

作     者：Juan Miao Xin Wang Ting-Ling Ren Zhi-Tao Li Juan Miao;Xin Wang;Ting-Ling Ren;Zhi-Tao Li

作者机构：National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China 

出 版 物：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 (天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第20卷第1期

页      面：27-34页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070401[理学-天体物理] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：supported by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project(project number Z181100002918004) the Equipment Pre-research Project(project number 30505020418) 

主　　题：solar cycle sunspot geomagnetic aa indices 

摘      要：Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather *** predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically ***,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed *** this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor *** a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).