Using state space models as a statistical impact measurement of survey redesigns: a case study of the labour force survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics

作     者：Xichuan(Mark)Zhang Jan A.van den Brakel Siu-Ming Tam 

作者机构：Methodology DivisionAustralian Bureau of Statistics(ABS)CanberraAustralia Department of Statistical MethodsStatistics Netherlands and Department of Quantitative EconomicsMaastricht University School of Business and EconomicsCanberraAustralia National Institute for Applied Statistics Research AustraliaUniversity of WollongongCanberraAustralia 

出 版 物：《Statistical Theory and Related Fields》 (统计理论及其应用（英文）)

年 卷 期：2019年第3卷第2期

页      面：224-238页

学科分类：08[工学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：American Bureau of Shipping  ABS 

主　　题：Intervention analysis survey sampling structural time series modelling labour force survey Kalman filter 

摘      要：The goals of any major business transformation programme in an official statistical agency often include improving data collection efficiency,data processing methodologies and data ***,the achievement of such improvements may have transitional statistical impacts that could be misinterpreted as real-world changes if they are not measured and handled *** paper describes a development work that sought to explore the design and analysis of a times-series experiment that measured the statistical impacts that sometimes occur during survey *** Labour Force Survey(LFS)of the Australian Bureau of Statistics(ABS)was used as a case *** the present study:(1)A large-scale field experiment was designed and conducted that allowed the outgoing and the incoming surveys to run in parallel for some periods to measure the impacts of any changes to the survey process;and(2)The precision of the impact measurement was continuously improved while the new survey design was being *** state space modelling(SSM)technique was adopted as the main approach,as it provides an efficient impact *** approach enabled sampling error structure to be incorporated in the time-series intervention *** approach was also able to be extended to take advantage of the availability of other related data sources(e.g.,the data obtained from the parallel data collection process)to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the impact *** stated above,the LFS was used as a case study;however,the models and methods developed in this study could be extended to other surveys.