Global Imbalance Adjustment:Stylized Facts,Driving Factors and China's Prospects

作     者：Ming Zhang Yao Liu 

作者机构：Institute of World Economics and PoliticsChinese Academy of Social SciencesChina Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social SciencesChina 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第27卷第6期

页      面：79-103页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 1202[管理学-工商管理] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 0701[理学-数学] 

主　　题：current account flow adjustment global imbalance net foreign assets stock adjustment 

摘      要：This paper summarizes global imbalance adjustment after the GFC and analyzes the evolution of balance of payments using a four-quadrant diagram.We construct the framework of a stock adjustment mechanism to analyze the main driving factors for the imbalance in surplus/deficit countries and debtors/creditors in an attempt to determine the sustainability of imbalance adjustment.We find that imbalances have been reduced to some extent,but most countries have not achieved rebalance after the global financial crisis.Therefore,we propose an ideal path for global imbalance adjustment and summarize the policy practices of representative countries that have followed this route.Based on our analysis,we suggest that China should learn from the Australian experience and adopt a macro-prudential assessment policy,actively adjust the domestic economic structure and optimize the structure of balance ofpayments.