Modeling and Forecasting of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Bangladesh Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models

作     者：Abdur Rahman Md Mahmudul Hasan 

作者机构：Department of Statistics Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Sylhet Bangladesh 

出 版 物：《Open Journal of Statistics》 (统计学期刊（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第7卷第4期

页      面：560-566页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Carbon Dioxide Modeling Forecasting Time Series ARIMA Bangladesh 

摘      要：In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to model the carbon dioxide emission by using time series data of forty-four years from 1972-2015. The performance of these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed that out of different ARIMA models, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is the best fitted model in predicting the emission of carbon dioxide in Bangladesh. Using this best fitted model, the forecasted value of carbon dioxide emission in Bangladesh, for the year 2016, 2017 and 2018 as obtained from ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was obtained as 83.94657 Metric Tons, 89.90464 Metric Tons and 96.28557 Metric Tons respectively.