Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

作     者：JING Cheng TAO Hui JIANG Tong WANG Yanjun ZHAI Jianqing CAO Lige SU Buda 景丞;陶辉;姜彤;王艳君;翟建青;曹丽格;苏布达

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis EcologyXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyCASUrumqi 830011China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical ScienceNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing Jiangsu 210044China National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第30卷第1期

页      面：68-84页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 0709[理学-地质学] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China MOST Chinese-Pakistan cooperative project jointly funded by NSFC and PSF The CMA Climate Change Science Fund 

主　　题：population urbanization and economic scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2020-2050 the Belt and Road region 

摘      要：The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60%of the world’s population and half of the global *** changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth,industrial structure and resource *** this study,the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development,*** population,urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020-2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC s shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs),and the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The population,urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five *** population will increase by 2%-8%/10a during 2020-2050 and reach 5.0-6.0 billion in ***,the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%-7.5%/10a and reach 49%-75%.The GDP will increase by 17%-34%/10a and reach 134-243 trillion USD.(2)Large differences will appear under different *** SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels,but the population size is comparatively smaller;SSP3 shows the opposite ***,the economy develops slowly under SSP4,but it has a relatively high urbanization level,while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3)In 2050,the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries,and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than *** will develop rapidly in South Asia,West Asia and Central Asia,and will increase by more than 150%in the fastest growing *** economy will grow fastest in South Asia,Southeast Asia and West Asia,and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.