Statistical Characteristics of Environmental Parameters for Warm Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall over Central and Eastern China

作     者：田付友 郑永光 张涛 张小玲 毛冬艳 孙建华 赵思雄 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe StormsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences National Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological Administration 

出 版 物：《Journal of Meteorological Research》 (气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第29卷第3期

页      面：370-384页

核心收录：

学科分类：080904[工学-电磁场与微波技术] 0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 07[理学] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 081105[工学-导航、制导与控制] 0706[理学-大气科学] 081001[工学-通信与信息系统] 081002[工学-信号与信息处理] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 

基　　金：Supported by the Meteorological Integration and Application of Key Techniques(CMAGJ2013Z04) China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406002 and GYHY201206004) National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106) 

主　　题：short-duration heavy rainfall parameter statistic characteristics atmosphere environment 

摘      要：Water vapor content, instability, and convergence conditions are the key to short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting. It is necessary to understand the large-scale atmospheric environment characteristics of short- duration heavy rainfall by investigating the distribution of physical parameters for different hourly rainfall intensities. The observed hourly rainfall data in China and the NCEP final analysis （FNL） data during 1 May and 30 September from 2002 to 2009 are used. NCEP FNL data are 6-hourly, resulting in sample sizes of 1573370, 355346, and 11401 for three categories of hourly rainfall （P） of no precipitation （P 〈 0.1 mm h-1）, ordinary precipitation （0.1≤ P 〈 20 mm h-1）, and short-duration heavy rainfall （P ≥ 20.0 mm h-1）, respectively, by adopting a temporal matching method. The results show that the total precipitable water （PWAT） is the best parameter indicating the hourly rainfall intensity. A PWAT of 28 mm is necessary for any short-duration heavy rainfall. The possibility of short-duration heavy rainfall occurrence increases with PWAT, and a PWAT of 59 mm is nearly sufficient. The specific humidity is a better indicator than relative humidity. Both 700- and 850-hPa relative humidity greater than 80% could be used to determine whether or not it is going to rain, but could not be used to estimate the rainfall intensity. Temperature and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature are also reasonable indicators of short-duration heavy rainfall. Among the atmospheric instability parameters, the best lifted index （BLI） performs best on the short- duration rainfall discrimination; the next best is the K index （KI）. The three rainfall categories are not well recognized by total totals （TT） or the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa （DT85）. Three- quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred with BLI less than -0.9, while no short-duration heavy rainfall occurred when BLI was greater than 2.6. The minimum threshold of KI was 28.1 for short-durati