Risk scoring system and predictor for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

作     者：Ji-Ye Chen Jian Feng Xian-Qiang Wang Shou-Wang Cai Jia-Hong Dong Yong-Liang Chen 

作者机构：Hospital and Institute of Hepatobiliary Surgery Chinese PLA General Hospital Chinese PLA Postgraduate Medical School 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 (世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第21卷第19期

页      面：5926-5933页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100210[医学-外科学(含：普外、骨外、泌尿外、胸心外、神外、整形、烧伤、野战外)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Pancreatic fistula Pancreaticoduodenectomy Postoperative complication Risk factor Logistic model 

摘      要：AIM: To establish a scoring system to predict clinicallyrelevant postoperative pancreatic fistula(CR-POPF)after pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD).METHODS: The clinical records of 921 consecutive patients who underwent PD between 2008 and 2013 were reviewed retrospectively. Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF) was defined and classified by the international study group of pancreatic fistula(ISGPF).We used a logistic regression model to determine the independent risk factors of CR-POPF and developed a scoring system based on the regression coefficient of the logistic regression model. The optimal cut-off value to divide the risk strata was determined by the Youden index. The patients were divided into two groups(low risk and high risk). The independent sample t test was used to detect differences in the means of drain amylase on postoperative day(POD) 1, 2 and 3. The optimal cut-off level of the drain amylase to distinguish CR-POPF from non-clinical POPF in the two risk strata groups was determined using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) ***: Grade A POPF occurred in 106(11.5%)patients, grade B occurred in 57(6.2%) patients,and grade C occurred in 32(3.5%) patients. A predictive scoring system for CR-POPF(0-6 points) was constructed using the following four factors: 1 point for each body mass index ≥ 28 [odds ratio(OR) = 3.86;95% confidence interval(CI): 1.92-7.75, P = 0.00],soft gland texture(OR = 4.50; 95%CI, 2.53-7.98, P =0.00), and the difference between the blood loss and transfusion in operation ≥ 800 mL(OR = 3.45; 95%CI,1.92-7.75, P = 0.00); and from 0 points for a 5 mm or greater duct diameter to 3 points for a less than 2 mm duct(OR = 8.97; 95%CI: 3.70-21.77, P = 0.00). The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of this score was 0.812. A score of 3 points was suggested to be the best cut-off value(Youden index = 0.485). In the low risk group, a drain amylase level ≥ 3600 U/L on POD3 could distinguish CR-POPF from non-clinicalPOPF(the