Construction Project Forecasting ＂Practical Use of EV Metrics＂

作     者：Reda Abbas Sabry 

作者机构：RS Management Consulting House Cairo Egypt 

出 版 物：《Management Studies》 (管理研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第2卷第3期

页      面：168-178页

学科分类：02[经济学] 

主　　题：Keywords: Earned Value (EV), construction projects, progress forecasting, variance analysis, expected finish date,budget at compilation 

摘      要：During this professional research--Construction Project Forecasting （Practical Use of EV Metrics）, which criticize earned value management as a most distinguished methodology for forecasting the project expected end dates and expecting budget at completion, the field for the research is construction field and specially the projects which content different phases without repetitive tasks. Forecasting for construction project is a complicated process need more than applying one equation only. As assuming that, project performance during finishing stage will be similar to project performance during concrete stage is totally wrong. The case study techniques have been used to prove an important idea and also to implement a suggested protocol which actually implemented and tested and it should be considered as a research finding. The project used in this case study is ＂Hurgadah Intemational Airport--New Terminal Building＂, while executing this complex construction projects with different stages the forecasting for the project end date and final end budget were completely not realistic. The above leads to questioning the next： ＂Is it true that using the earned value indexes for forecasting construction projects end date and final budget is the right way？ And if not, what is the right process that should be used in order to reach acceptable forecasting method？＂ We implement the EV measurements by the normal technique and also implement in the same month the suggested protocol for forecasting, comparing the results proof the effectiveness of the suggested protocol. The findings prove that, the construction projects need special treatment when use the EVM for forecasting. The earned value indexes created to serve the projects which have repeated tasks or can say which got one stage only, like information technology （IT） projects as those projects depending on manpower productivity and also based on few different qualifications. On such type of projects the earned value foreca