The prediction method of similar cycles

作     者：Zhan-Le Du Hua-Ning Wang 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Solar Activity National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012 China 

出 版 物：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 (天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2011年第11卷第12期

页      面：1482-1492页

核心收录：

学科分类：0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 08[工学] 080401[工学-精密仪器及机械] 0804[工学-仪器科学与技术] 080402[工学-测试计量技术及仪器] 0835[工学-软件工程] 081002[工学-信号与信息处理] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.10973020,40890161 and 10921303) the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program Grant No.2011CB811406) 

主　　题：Sun: activity    Sun: general    sunspots 

摘      要：The concept of degree of similarity （η）, is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter （e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax） of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed. For two parameters, the solar minimum （Rmin） and rising rate （βa）, which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum, a synthesis degree of similarity （ηs） is defined as the weighted-average of the η values around Rmin and βa, with the weights given by the coefficients of determination of Rmax with Rmin and βa, respectively. The monthly values of the whole referenced cycle can be predicted by averaging the corresponding values in the most similar cycles with the weights given by the ηs values. As an application, Cycle 24 is predicted to peak around January 2013 i8 （month） with a size of about Rmax = 84 ± 17 and to end around September 2019.