GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target

作     者：CHEN Wen\|ying (Energy, Environment and Economy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.) 

作者机构：Energy Environment and Economy Research Institute Tsinghua University 北京 100084 

出 版 物：《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 (环境科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2003年第15卷第4期

页      面：541-547页

核心收录：

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 07[理学] 08[工学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：This article is part of the work done under UNFCCC (United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change) Fellowship Programme The fellowship support from UNFCCC Secretariat is gratefully acknowledged 

主　　题：Kyoto Protocol emission reduction abatement cost flexible mechanisms 

摘      要：Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves(MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbon market, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex, dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared. Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties total reduction requirements range from 503—1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140—612 MtC after USA s withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21—77 BUSD with USA and from 5—36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions share in the all mitigation strategies drops to only 0—16%.