Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of the Simulated Seawater—Freshwater Mixing Zones in Steady-State Coastal Aquifers

作     者：赵忠伟 赵坚 辛沛 华国芬 金光球 ZHAO Zhong-wei;ZHAO Jian;XIN Pei;HUA Guo-fen;JIN Guang-qiu

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic EngineeringHohai University College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Hohai University 

出 版 物：《China Ocean Engineering》 (中国海洋工程（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第29卷第4期

页      面：489-502页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 

基　　金：financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51309091,51239003 and 51279045) the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2012M520989) 

主　　题：seawater intrusion mixing zone uncertainty analysis fractional factorial design Morris "s OAT design coastal aquifer 

摘      要：The uncertainty and sensitivity of predicted positions and thicknesses of seawater-freshwater mixing zones with respect to uncertainties of saturated hydraulic conductivity, porosity, molecular diffusivity, longitudinal and transverse dispersivities were investigated in both head-control and flux-control inland boundary systems. It shows that uncertainties and sensitivities of predicted results vary in different boundary systems. With the same designed matrix of uncertain factors in simulation experiments, the variance of predicted positions and thickness in the flux-control system is much larger than that predicted in the head-control system. In a head-control system, the most sensitive factors for the predicted position of the mixing zone are inland freshwater head and transverse dispersivity. However, the predicted position of the mixing zone is more sensitive to saturated hydraulic conductivity in a flux-control system. In a head-control system, the most sensitive factors for the predicted thickness of the mixing zone include transverse dispersivity, molecular diffusivity, porosity, and longitudinal dispersivity, but the predicted thickness is more sensitive to the saturated hydraulic conductivity in a flux-control system. These findings improve our understandings for the development of seawater-freshwater mixing zone during seawater intrusion processes, and give technical support for groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers.