Impact of climate change on allowable bearing capacity on theQinghai-Tibetan Plateau
作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy o f Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China
出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2019年第10卷第2期
页 面：99-108页
核心收录：
学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0709[理学-地质学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术]
基 金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41690144) Independent Project of the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engi neering (SKLFSE-ZQ-45).
主 题：Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Climate change Permafrost Allowable bearing capacity
摘 要：Climate change has a substantial impact on infrastructures in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and permafrost evolution were investigated in both the historical (1950-2005) and projected (2006-2099) periods. Then, an allowable bearing capacity model was used to discuss the allowable bearing capacity change on the QTP. Results show that the MAGT increased by 0.36 ℃ during 1950-2005. The MAGT will increase by 0.40 (RCP2.6), 0.79 (RCP4.5), 1.07 (RCP6.0), and 1.75 (RCP8.5)℃C during 2006-2099. In addition, the permafrost area has decreased by 0.195 × 10^6 km2 in 1950-2005. The permafrost area will decrease by 0.232 × 10^6 (RCP2.6), 0.468 × 10^6 (RCP4.5), 0.564 × 10^6 (RCP6.0), and 0.803 × 10^6 (RCP8.5) km2 during 2006-2099. With the degradation of permafrost, the allowable bearing capacity in permafrost zones would decrease accordingly. The decreasing trend is 6 kPa per 10 years in 1950-2005, and will be 0.6 (RCP2.6), 5 (RCP4.5), 7 (RCP6.0), and 11 (RCP8.5) kPa per 10 years during 2006-2099. The most remarkable trend would be observed under RCP8.5. Meanwhile, some scientific advices for the design, construction, operation and maintenance of permafrost engineering in the context of climate change were provided.
维普期刊数据库