Prediction of the globally ecological suitability of Panax quinquefolius by the geographic information system for global medicinal plants(GMPGIS)

作     者：SHEN Liang LI Xi-Wen MENG Xiang-Xiao WU Jie TANG Huan HUANG Lin-Fang XIAO Shui-Ming XU Jiang CHEN Shi-Lin 

作者机构：Institute of Chinese Materia Medica China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences Beijing 100700 China Institute of Medicinal Plant Development (IMPLAD) Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) Peking Union Medical College (PUMC) Beijing 100193 China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines》 (中国天然药物（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第17卷第7期

页      面：481-489页

核心收录：

学科分类：1007[医学-药学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1006[医学-中西医结合] 100706[医学-药理学] 100602[医学-中西医结合临床] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.81403053 and 81274013) the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1702100) the National Science-technology Support Plan Project(No.2015BAI05B02) China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2017M611128) 

主　　题：American ginseng Panax quinquefolius Ecological suitable area Climate change GMPGIS Jackknife test 

摘      要：American ginseng(Panax quinquefolius L.) is a well-known Asian traditional herbal medicine with a large market demand. The plant is native to eastern North America, and its main producing areas worldwide are decreasing due to continuous cropping obstacles and environmental changes. Therefore, the identification of maximum similarities of new ecological distribution of ***, and prediction of its response to climate change in the future are necessary for plant introduction and cultivation. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for P. quinquefolius were predicted using the geographic information system for global medicinal plants(GMPGIS) based on 476 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables. The results indicate that the new ecologically suitable areas for P. quinquefolius are East Asia and the mid-eastern Europe, which are mainly distributed in China, Russia, Japan, Ukraine, Belarus, North Korean, South Korea, and Romania. Under global climate change scenarios, the suitable planting areas for P. quinquefolius would be increased by 9.16%–30.97%, and expanding north and west over the current ecologically suitable areas by 2070. The potential increased areas that are ecologically suitable include northern Canada, Eastern Europe, and the Lesser Khingan Mountains of China, and reduced regions are mainly in central China, the southern U.S., and southern Europe. Jackknife tests indicate that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the important climatic factor controlling the distribution of P. *** findings can be used as a useful guide for P. quinquefolius introduction and cultivation in ecologically suitable areas.