The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis

作     者：SHEN Ji Chuan LUO Lei LI Li JING Qin Long OU Chun Quan YANG Zhi Cong CHEN Xiao Guang 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher InstitutesDepartment of Pathogen BiologySchool of Public Health and Tropical MedicineSouthern Medical University Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure ResearchDepartment of BiostatisticsGuangdong Provinical Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease ResearchSchool of Public Health and Tropical MedicineSouthern Medical University 

出 版 物：《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 (生物医学与环境科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第28卷第5期

页      面：321-329页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health,USA(R01 AI083202,D43 TW009527) National Nature Science Foundation of China(81273139) the Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality(2013-2015-07) Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province,China(2013B021800041) 

主　　题：Breteau index Dengue fever Meteorological factors Negative binomial regression model 

摘      要：Objective To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever（DF） cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China. Methods The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index （BI）, and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. Results A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month＇s BI, average temperature （Tare）, previous month＇s minimum temperature （Train）, and Tare were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25℃ was found in the relationship between the current month＇s Tmin and DF incidence. Conclusion Mosquito density, Tove, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.