A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

作     者：Min WEI 

作者机构：Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Bundesstrasse 53 D-20146 Hamburg Germany 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2005年第22卷第6期

页      面：798-806页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung,BMBF Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie,BMFT 

主　　题：asian summer monsoon climate change IPCC SRES scenarios 

摘      要：The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.