Recent Advances in Dynamical Extra-Seasonal to Annual Climate Prediction at IAP/CAS

作     者：林朝晖 王会军 周广庆 陈红 郎咸梅 赵彦 曾庆存 

作者机构：International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080ecent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-Ⅱ) has been described and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998 and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g. land surface characteristics sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached such as the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally several practical techniques (e.g. ensemble technique correction method etc.) which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction. 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2004年第21卷第3期

页      面：456-466页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by the Key P roject of the National N atural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:40233027 and 40221503) the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203) the IAP/CAS Knowledge Innovation Project 

主　　题：seasonal prediction ensemble technique ENSO prediction soil moisture correction method 

摘      要：Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-Ⅱ) has been described, and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.