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Vehicle survival patterns in China

Vehicle survival patterns in China

作     者:HAO Han WANG HeWu OUYANG MingGao CHENG Fei 

作者机构:State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC) Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China 

出 版 物:《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 (中国科学(技术科学英文版))

年 卷 期:2011年第54卷第3期

页      面:625-629页

核心收录:

学科分类:02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 07[理学] 082304[工学-载运工具运用工程] 08[工学] 080204[工学-车辆工程] 0714[理学-统计学(可授理学、经济学学位)] 0802[工学-机械工程] 070103[理学-概率论与数理统计] 0701[理学-数学] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

基  金:Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China ("863" Project) (Grant No. 2008AA11A157) 

主  题:vehicle survival pattern average life span scrappage intensity 

摘      要:The vehicle survival pattern describes the process that the survival ratio of vehicles decreases with the growth of vehicle age. Vehicle average life span and vehicle scrappage intensity are the key features of vehicle survival patterns and are important for the projection of China s vehicle scrappage and ownership. In this study, we modeled the vehicle survival patterns of nine classifications of vehicles in China by employing the Weibull distribution, and obtained the vehicle survival ratio functions. It is estimated that the average life spans of private passenger vehicles, government and business vehicles, non-operating buses, heavy duty, medium duty and light duty trucks are 14.5, 13.1, 11.5, 12.8, 10.1, and 8 years, respectively. The scrappage intensities of these vehicles are similar. Average life spans of taxis, transit buses and non-transit operating buses are 5, 9, and 5.5 years with the pattern of mandatory scrappage. Vehicle scrappages in China are mainly regulated by the upper limits of vehicle distances traveled specified by the compulsory scrappage standards.

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